The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 15 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will cloudy to the south and mostly sunny to the north. Yesterday’s showers and sprinkles will have moved out of the area leaving a drying trend for the next day or two. Temperatures will be warming with Texas in the 70’s and southern to central Oklahoma in the 60’s. Winds will be light to moderate from the west in Texas to a more southwesterly direction in northern Texas and Oklahoma. Tonight mostly cloudy to clear skies will prevail. Temperatures in Oklahoma will drop into the 40’s, north Texas and the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will drop into the mid to lower 50’s and areas to the west across the Edwards Plateau into the 40’s. Overall nighttime temperatures will be mild for this time of the year. Winds will be from the southwest at light to moderate levels across the entire region except for the central and southwestern portions of the Edwards Plateau where they will come from the northwest. Tomorrow mostly sunny to sunny skies will be prevalent with some partly cloudy skies over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will cool a bit with high’s expected to be in the upper 60’s and not in the 70’s excecpt along the eastern edge of the Plateau from Austin to San Antonio. In that area there is also a 30 to 40% chance of showers. Winds will be building over the day from the west with moderate conditions going into the afternoon and evening. Overnight temperatures will dip into the low 40’s and 30’s with winds remaining from the west but at light levels.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the southern Oklahoma move to the north northeast towards Tulsa on persistent southwesterly winds. Mostly sunny skies will occur across the region with warm daytime temperatures reaching into the 60s. The atmosphere appears to be stable but heavy moving at ground level over most of Oklahoma. Winds will be from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph building during the day. Tonight temperatures will cool into the lower 40s with winds remaining from the southwest at moderate levels. The is an indication that the trees are shedding pollen to the south and that the trees in southern Oklahoma are close to beginning their pollination season.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with moderate conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Sunny conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur across Oklahoma but today will be drying out from recent rains. Tomorrow will be much better as mostly sunny skies return. Over the weekend temperatures will be warm for this time of year and wind speeds will be moderate, the potential of pollen release is just beginning to build thus the overall amount of pollen is not expected to be high.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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