The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 15 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will cloudy to the south and mostly sunny to the north. Yesterday’s showers and sprinkles will have moved out of the area leaving a drying trend for the next day or two. Temperatures will be warming with Texas in the 70’s and southern to central Oklahoma in the 60’s. Winds will be light to moderate from the west in Texas to a more southwesterly direction in northern Texas and Oklahoma. Tonight mostly cloudy to clear skies will prevail. Temperatures in Oklahoma will drop into the 40’s, north Texas and the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will drop into the mid to lower 50’s and areas to the west across the Edwards Plateau into the 40’s. Overall nighttime temperatures will be mild for this time of the year. Winds will be from the southwest at light to moderate levels across the entire region except for the central and southwestern portions of the Edwards Plateau where they will come from the northwest. Tomorrow mostly sunny to sunny skies will be prevalent with some partly cloudy skies over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will cool a bit with high’s expected to be in the upper 60’s and not in the 70’s excecpt along the eastern edge of the Plateau from Austin to San Antonio. In that area there is also a 30 to 40% chance of showers. Winds will be building over the day from the west with moderate conditions going into the afternoon and evening. Overnight temperatures will dip into the low 40’s and 30’s with winds remaining from the west but at light levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau swirl over most of the area with the winds in the northeastern portion of the forecast area moving to the northeast. Across Texas today partly cloudy skies will start the day building to mostly cloudy conditions. Temperatures across the region will be warm with most readings in the 70’s. Winds will be from the north and west at light levels. Overnight the winds will be from the southwest to the east and northwest to the west. Winds will be at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow skies will begin to clear, but there will be an increasing chance of showers along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau (Austin to San Antonio). Temperatures will cool a bit but most areas will be in the mid 60’s and not the 70’s. Winds will be predominantly from the west and northwest at light to moderate conditions. Tomorrow night skies will clear and temperatures are expected to drop into the 40’s along the eastern Edwards Plateau and into the 30’s to the west.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good to moderate conditions for entrainment and transport both days. warm conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau today. Wet conditions yesterday may delay a significant release of pollen from the region, but the warmer temperatures will dry the region out. Tomorrow temperatures will cool a bit but the chance of a moderate to significant release will be forecast. The potential of pollen release is moderate today and more significant tomorrow. The air is stable over the Edwards Plateau today and tomorrow, except for the potential of thunderstorms along the southeastern edge of the Plateau. In those areas pollen could be swept up into the atmosphere and moved downwind.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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