The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sunday, December 16 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warm today with most areas in the upper 60’s to low 70’s, extending across Texas into southern and central Oklahoma. A front that has brought showers and thunderstorms continues to extend east from southern Texas into the southeast but it is moving across southeastern Texas and will be much less of a concern over central Texas and into Oklahoma. This morning residual rain showers and cloudy skies may occur in Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio. However, the chance of morning showers is less than 30%. The region around the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau northwards into Oklahoma will see clearing skies with sunny conditions towards the afternoon and into the evening. Winds for the most part will be from the north and northwest beginning light and then building to moderate conditions towards evening. Over the Edwards Plateau cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with warm temperatures and a similar wind pattern. Winds will be from the west to northwest building to moderate conditions during the afternoon. Tonight partly cloudy skies will dominate across Texas but clear to the north across central and southern Oklahoma. Temperatures will be mostly in the upper 30’s to low 40’s with light winds continuing from the north and northwest. Tomorrow sunny skies and warm conditions will return with light to moderate winds from the northwest across the entire region. Oklahoma and areas in the western portion of the Edwards Plateau will be in the 60’s, whereas the edge communities around the Edwards Plateau will be in the 70’s. Tomorrow night the skies will be mostly clear with light to moderate winds from the southwest and west. Temperatures will be in the mid 30’s in the western areas of the Edwards Plateau north into Oklahoma. The edge communities on the eastern side of the Plateau can expect the lower 40’s overnight.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move towards the east on a pattern of dominant westerly winds. Across Texas today partly cloudy to partly sunny skies will dominate. Temperatures across the region will be warm with most readings in the upper 60’s to low and mid 70’s. Winds will start from the northwest but shift to a dominant westerly direction and increase in strength going into the afternoon and evening. Overnight the winds will calm, especially north, but maintain a west to northwesterly flow. Tomorrow skies will be clear across the region with warm temperatures and moderate winds maintaining themselves out of the west and northwest. Temperatures will maintain warm conditions with most areas returning to the mid 60’s mid 70’s. Tomorrow night skies will be clear to mostly clear and temperatures are expected to drop into the 40’s along the eastern Edwards Plateau and into the 30’s to the west and north.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and High threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and good conditions tomorrow with good to moderate conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Warm conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau today. However there has been early precipitation today and wet conditions in the past few days especially along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Wet conditions may delay a significant release of pollen from the region today, but the warmer temperatures will dry the region out. Tomorrow temperatures will maintain the good conditions with sunny skies therefore there is a high threat. The dominant west and northwesterly flow will move any entrained pollen towards the east. Therefore the communities at risk are east of the primary populations in east Texas as well as Arkansas

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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