The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 17 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, December 17 TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue to be unseasonably warm today with most areas in the upper 60s to low 70s, extending across Texas into southern and central Oklahoma. A ridge of high pressure will dominate across the region for the next couple of days. This morning clear skies have predominated across the region with mostly sunny skies to the north and sunny skies across Texas. Winds today will be from the west and northwest and moderate to light levels, gaining strength towards the south. Tonight clear skies will predominate with some clouds building around the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau northward into the Dallas/Ft. Worth region. Low temperatures will be in the 40s where the partly cloudy skies occur and into the 30s across the rest of the region. Tomorrow, sunny and mostly sunny skies will return. Temperatures warm with almost the entire region reaching into the 70s. Across central and southern Texas temperatures will reach into the upper 70s. Winds will be from the south and southwest at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow night low temperatures will be very mild with the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau in the mid to upper 50s. San Antonio is expected to remain near 60. The skies will be mostly clear to the north with lows in the low 50s and 40s. Across the Edwards Plateau skies will eventually become partly cloudy. Winds across the region will be from the south at moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move towards the east today on westerly winds then this afternoon and evening the winds will come from the southwest and the trajectories take a more northeasterly direction. Across Texas today sunny skies and warm conditions will dominate over the entire region. Temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 60s to low and mid 70s. Winds will start from the west but shift to a dominant southwesterly direction and increase in strength in the southern areas going into the afternoon and evening. Overnight the winds will calm, especially north, but maintain a southwesterly flow. Tomorrow skies will be clear again across the region with warm temperatures, highs in the upper 70s, and moderate winds maintaining themselves out of the southwest. Tomorrow night skies will be mostly clear, although partly cloudy skies will build along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be very mild with most reading across Texas in the 50s. Slightly cooler conditions will occur towards west Texas and into southern Oklahoma.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and good conditions tomorrow with moderate conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Warm conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau today and tomorrow. Tomorrow temperatures will maintain the good conditions with sunny skies therefore there is a high threat both days. The dominant west and southwesterly flow will move any entrained pollen towards the east and then northeast later today and into tomorrow. Therefore the communities at risk are east of the primary populations in east Texas, southeastern most Oklahoma as well as Arkansas. The pollen release season is just beginning therefore there may be limited amounts of pollen ready to be shed, however the warm temperatures may accelerate the ripening process and set the stage for heavy release soon.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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