The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 18 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue to be unseasonably warm today with most areas in the 70’s, extending across Texas into southern and central Oklahoma. A ridge of high pressure will remain today but tomorrow and tomorrow evening winds will begin to increase as a system moves across the southern Rocky Mountains. This morning clear skies predominate across the region with sunny skies across the region. Winds today will be from the southwest at light to moderate levels. Tonight clear skies will predominate with some clouds building across the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau and over the Plateau itself. Low temperatures will be in the 40’s across central and southern Oklahoma, but remain in the 50’s to the south in Texas. San Antonio may not drop below the 60’s tonight. Winds will be from the south and maintain if not build to moderate levels overnight. Tomorrow, mostly cloudy skies will occur to the north in Oklahoma. Across Texas partly sunny skies will occur to the north and in the morning cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will occur across areas further south. The change in the weather will occur as a front moves across the region to the north. Mostly cloudy conditions over the Edwards Plateau will become partly cloudy during the afternoon. Along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau there will be a chance of fog and drizzle. In Austin, thunderstorms may develop early. Temperatures will be in the 70’s across the region and winds will remain from the south to southwest and moderate levels. Tomorrow night, skies will clear across the Edwards Plateau region. To the north partly cloudy skies will remain. Low temperatures will return to more seasonal levels with most areas in the 30’s and 40’s. Winds will switch from southerly direction that has predominated recently, coming out of the west and northwest at moderate to strong levels. Winds of 25 mph will be common as the front passes across the region.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckles move northward today and tomorrow on south to southwesterly winds. Across the Arbuckle Mountains today sunny skies and warm conditions will dominate over the region. Temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Winds will be light, upwards of 10 mph from the south to southwest. Overnight the winds will begin light and variable but ramp up to moderate levels. As the winds ramp up it will draw more moisture into the region and tomorrow will be mostly cloudy. Ardmore will have a 20% chance of precipitation during the morning. Winds tomorrow will become moderate to strong with gusts potentially reaching above 25 mph. Tomorrow night, skies will maintain partly cloudy conditions but temperatures will fall into the lower 30’s. Winds will maintain their strength at moderate to strong levels.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport today and tomorrow. Warm conditions but with moderate wind speeds will occur across southern Oklahoma today. Tonight and tomorrow winds will increase to strong conditions, 20 to 30 mph. Tomorrow temperatures will maintain the very warm temperatures but with mostly cloudy skies. The light winds today along with buoyant atmospheric conditions may transport any pollen released some distance. Tomorrow will have better conditions for entrainment and travel, however humidity will be higher and skies will be mostly cloudy which should dampen any pollen ready to be released. In addition, the season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is just beginning therefore there may be limited amounts of pollen ready to be shed. A recent canvas of the trees in central Texas showed only about 5% of the cones ready to shed pollen. Traditionally, the trees in southern Oklahoma tend to lag the main Texas population. However the regional warm temperatures may accelerate the ripening process and set the stage for heavier pollen release soon.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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