The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 18 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue to be unseasonably warm today with most areas in the 70’s, extending across Texas into southern and central Oklahoma. A ridge of high pressure will remain today but tomorrow and tomorrow evening winds will begin to increase as a system moves across the southern Rocky Mountains. This morning clear skies predominate across the region with sunny skies across the region. Winds today will be from the southwest at light to moderate levels. Tonight clear skies will predominate with some clouds building across the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau and over the Plateau itself. Low temperatures will be in the 40’s across central and southern Oklahoma, but remain in the 50’s to the south in Texas. San Antonio may not drop below the 60’s tonight. Winds will be from the south and maintain if not build to moderate levels overnight. Tomorrow, mostly cloudy skies will occur to the north in Oklahoma. Across Texas partly sunny skies will occur to the north and in the morning cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will occur across areas further south. The change in the weather will occur as a front moves across the region to the north. Mostly cloudy conditions over the Edwards Plateau will become partly cloudy during the afternoon. Along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau there will be a chance of fog and drizzle. In Austin, thunderstorms may develop early. Temperatures will be in the 70’s across the region and winds will remain from the south to southwest and moderate levels. Tomorrow night, skies will clear across the Edwards Plateau region. To the north partly cloudy skies will remain. Low temperatures will return to more seasonal levels with most areas in the 30’s and 40’s. Winds will switch from southerly direction that has predominated recently, coming out of the west and northwest at moderate to strong levels. Winds of 25 mph will be common as the front passes across the region.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northward today and tomorrow on south to southwesterly. Across Texas today sunny skies and warm conditions will dominate over the entire region. Temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 60’s to low and mid 70’s. Overnight the winds will maintain their strength and may even build somewhat except in Oklahoma where they will decrease to light and variable conditions. Over the Edwards Plateau and along the eastern edge, clear skies tonight will begin to cloud. Both Austin and San Antonio can expect fog and drizzle overnight. Tomorrow skies will show greater moisture with mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions. Temperatures will return into the 70’s and the southerly winds will be maintained. Tomorrow night northerly sites will be partly cloudy whereas Edwards Plateau region will clear. Temperatures will drop into seasonal lows in the 30’s and 40’s. Winds will shift, coming from the northwest and moderate to strong conditions.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and good conditions tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Warm conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau and into southern Oklahoma today and tomorrow. Tomorrow, temperatures will remain in the 70’s but with more moisture and therefore partly to mostly cloudy skies. The dominant south-southwesterly flow will move any entrained pollen northward. Therefore the communities at risk are north to northeast of the primary populations in central Texas, Oklahoma as well as northeasternArkansas. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is just beginning therefore there may be limited amounts of pollen ready to be shed. A recent canvas of the trees in central Texas showed only about 5% of the cones ready to shed pollen, however the warm temperatures may accelerate the ripening process and set the stage for heavy release soon.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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