The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 20 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather change that occurred overnight will bring cooler weather with very strong winds but sunny skies. Unlike the last few days, today will see high temperatures at least 20 degrees cooler. Most areas are expected to only reach into the 50’s. Winds will be from the north and northwest at moderate to strong levels. Gusts will be in the 30-40 mph range along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will begin to die down during the afternoon with light levels occurring overnight. Low Temperatures across the region tonight will be will within the twenties and teens across the region. To the north and east predominantly northwesterly winds will occur. To the southwest on the Edwards Plateau they will begin to turn back to a southwesterly flow. Tomorrow skies will be sunny in most regions with daytime temperatures beginning to warm. Tomorrow the western areas of the Edwards Plateau will be in the low 60’s with light to moderate winds from the south. Across the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau winds will start from the north but shift, coming from the southeast. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s. Tomorrow night most skies will be clear but partly cloudy conditions will occur in Austin to San Antonio. Overnight lows will climb into the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Winds will be from the south to southwest at light levels.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move south-southeastward today on strong north and northwesterly winds. On the ground, winds up to 20-25 mph are possible. Across Oklahoma today mostly clear skies but with cool conditions will dominate. The clear skies will remain overnight but temperatures will drop significantly with most areas in the mid to low 20’s. Tomorrow, sunny skies will remain with some warming. The warmest areas in the forecast region will get back into the upper 60’s. The warming will occur as the northwesterly and northerly winds shift to a warmer southwesterly flow. Overnight, mostly clear skies will return with partly cloudy conditions in the Edwards Plateau edge communities. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20’s. The change from the predominant northwesterly winds to a more southwesterly flow will result in the air mass trajectories moving primarily southward.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low threat Tomorrow *** Marginal conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold conditions. Good conditions for entrainment and transport today with strong gusty winds and lots of turbulence, tomorrow winds will calm to moderate levles. Cold conditions with strong wind speeds will occur across the Arbuckle Mountains today. Overnight winds will be light and variable then switch to a more southwesterly direction tomorrow. With the winds shifting some warming will occur, however high tempatures will not climb out of the 50’s. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is near its beginning therefore there may be limited amounts of pollen ready to be shed. However a number of patients have contacted the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees there is an increasing risk of exposure.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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