The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 20 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather change that occurred overnight will bring cooler weather with very strong winds but sunny skies. Unlike the last few days, today will see high temperatures at least 20 degrees cooler. Most areas are expected to only reach into the 50’s. Winds will be from the north and northwest at moderate to strong levels. Gusts will be in the 30-40 mph range along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will begin to die down during the afternoon with light levels occurring overnight. Low Temperatures across the region tonight will be will within the twenties and teens across the region. To the north and east predominantly northwesterly winds will occur. To the southwest on the Edwards Plateau they will begin to turn back to a southwesterly flow. Tomorrow skies will be sunny in most regions with daytime temperatures beginning to warm. Tomorrow the western areas of the Edwards Plateau will be in the low 60’s with light to moderate winds from the south. Across the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau winds will start from the north but shift, coming from the southeast. Temperatures will be in the upper 50’s. Tomorrow night most skies will be clear but partly cloudy conditions will occur in Austin to San Antonio. Overnight lows will climb into the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Winds will be from the south to southwest at light levels.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southward today on strong north and northwesterly winds. On the ground, gusts reaching upwards of40 mph are possible. Across Texas today mostly clear skies but with cool conditions will dominate. The clear skies will remain overnight but temperatures will drop significantly iwht most areas in the low 20’s to upper teens. Tomorrow, sunny skies will remain with some warming. The warmest areas in the forecast region will get back into the low 60’s. The warming will occur as the northwesterly and northerly winds shift to a warmer southwesterly flow. The communities along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will continue to have a northwest flow early but will switch during the day coming from a southeasterly direction. Overnight, mostly clear skies will return with partly cloudy conditions in the Edwards Plateau edge communities. Overnight lows will be in the mid to low 30’s. The change from the predominant northwesterly winds to a more southwesterly flow will result in the air mass trajectories moving primarily southwated then swirling back over Texas.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Marginal conditions for pollen release today but better conditions tomorrow as the winds shift and warmer conditions return. Good conditions for entrainment and transport today with strong gusty winds and lots of turbulence, tomorrow winds will calm. Cold conditions with strong wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau and to the east today. Overnight winds will maintain a northwesterly direction but will shift to the southwest beginning tonight. With this change cold conditions will begin to be influenced by the warmer southwesterly breezes.. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is near its beginning therefore there may be limited amounts of pollen ready to be shed. However a number of patients have contacted the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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