The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, December 21 – TX/OK: Across the region sunny skies and warming temperature will occur today. Temperatures that have recently dipped will return back to the 60’s across the region as the cooler air from the north and northwest is replaced by a southerly flow and warmer conditions. Winds across the region will be light to moderate and from the south to southwest. Tonight mostly clear skies will remain with low temperatures in the 20’s. Winds will remain light from the south. Tomorrow, some moisture will move through the area with the Arbuckle Mountains being partly cloudy. Temperatures will remain in the mid 60’s. The southerly winds will remain but the strength will be building to moderate levels during the day. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will remain in and around the Arbuckle Mountains. Nighttime temperatures will be mild with lows in the 40’s in the areas around the Arbuckle Mountains.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northward today on light to moderate winds from the south. On the ground, light to moderate winds will dominate and the wind does not appear to be particularly buoyant. Across Oklahoma today clear skies will dominate but with mild conditions. The clear skies will remain overnight but temperatures will drop back into the upper 20’s to the lower 30’s. Tomorrow, sunny skies will return to the Arbuckle Mountains and central Oklahoma. Temperatures will return to the lower to mid 60’s with southerly winds from the south at moderate levels. The Arbuckle Mountains will be mostly sunny tomorrow and tomorrow night. Winds will remain from the south with some warming, nighttime temperatures will be in the lower 40’s in the Arbuckle Mountains and in the upper 30’s in the communities to the north.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow as winds from the south move pollen trajectories northward over northern Texas and into Oklahoma. Any pollen released from the Arbuckle Mountains will be added to this northerly trek. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today and tomorrow with little buoyancy therefore most pollen will move at ground level and be removed from impaction. Mild conditions with moderate to light wind speeds will occur across the region today and tomorrow. Overnight winds will maintain a northerly direction from predominately southerly winds. Tonight’s cold conditions will begin to be influenced by the warmer southerly breezes. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is near its beginning. However a number of patients have contacted the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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