The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Moderate |
Austin |
High |
San Antonio |
High |
Date Issued: 21 December 2012
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Friday, December 21 – TX/OK:
Across the region sunny skies and warming temperature will occur today. Temperatures that have recently dipped
will return back to the 60’s across the region as the cooler air from the north and northwest is replaced by a
southerly flow and warmer conditions. Winds across the region will be light to moderate and from the south to
southwest. Tonight mostly clear skies will remain with low temperatures in the 30’s. Winds will remain light
from the south. Tomorrow, some moisture will move through the area with the Edwards Plateau being partly cloudy
and partly sunny condition in the communities surrounding the edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will remain
in the mid to upper 60’s. The southerly winds will remain but the strength will be building to moderate levels
during the day. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will remain to the north, but over the Plateau partly cloudy
to mostly cloudy skies will build. Nighttime temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50’s in the communities
surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau low temperatures will remain in the upper 30’s.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northward today on moderate winds
from the south. On the ground, light to moderate winds will dominate. The winds do not appear to have much buoyancy
therefore their movement will be at or near the ground level. Across Texas today clear skies but with mild conditions
will occur. The clear skies will remain overnight but temperatures will drop back into the lower 30’s. In the
Ardmore Mountains of southern Oklahoma nighttime temperatures will drop into the upper 20’s. Tomorrow, sunny skies
will return to northern Texas and in the edge communities of Austin around to San Antonio. Temperatures will return
to the mid to upper 60’s with southerly winds from the south at moderate levels. The Edwards Plateau will be partly
cloudy tomorrow and into tomorrow night. Winds will remain from the southwest with some warming, nighttime temperatures
will be in the upper 30’s on the Plateau and in the 50’s in the communities surrounding the Plateau.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions
for pollen release today and tomorrow as winds from the south move trajectories northward over northern Texas and
Oklahoma. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today and tomorrow with little buoyancy
therefore most pollen will move at ground level and be removed from impaction. Mild conditions with moderate to
light wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau and to the east today. Overnight winds will maintain a
northerly direction from predominately southerly winds. Tonight’s cold conditions will begin to be influenced
by the warmer southerly breezes. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is near its beginning. However
a number of patients have contacted the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant
numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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