The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 21 December 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Friday, December 21 Ė TX/OK: Across the region sunny skies and warming temperature will occur today. Temperatures that have recently dipped will return back to the 60ís across the region as the cooler air from the north and northwest is replaced by a southerly flow and warmer conditions. Winds across the region will be light to moderate and from the south to southwest. Tonight mostly clear skies will remain with low temperatures in the 30ís. Winds will remain light from the south. Tomorrow, some moisture will move through the area with the Edwards Plateau being partly cloudy and partly sunny condition in the communities surrounding the edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 60ís. The southerly winds will remain but the strength will be building to moderate levels during the day. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will remain to the north, but over the Plateau partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will build. Nighttime temperatures will be mild with lows in the 50ís in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau low temperatures will remain in the upper 30ís.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northward today on moderate winds from the south. On the ground, light to moderate winds will dominate. The winds do not appear to have much buoyancy therefore their movement will be at or near the ground level. Across Texas today clear skies but with mild conditions will occur. The clear skies will remain overnight but temperatures will drop back into the lower 30ís. In the Ardmore Mountains of southern Oklahoma nighttime temperatures will drop into the upper 20ís. Tomorrow, sunny skies will return to northern Texas and in the edge communities of Austin around to San Antonio. Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 60ís with southerly winds from the south at moderate levels. The Edwards Plateau will be partly cloudy tomorrow and into tomorrow night. Winds will remain from the southwest with some warming, nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 30ís on the Plateau and in the 50ís in the communities surrounding the Plateau.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow as winds from the south move trajectories northward over northern Texas and Oklahoma. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today and tomorrow with little buoyancy therefore most pollen will move at ground level and be removed from impaction. Mild conditions with moderate to light wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau and to the east today. Overnight winds will maintain a northerly direction from predominately southerly winds. Tonightís cold conditions will begin to be influenced by the warmer southerly breezes. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is near its beginning. However a number of patients have contacted the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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