The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 22 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 22 – TX/OK: Across the region sunny skies and warming temperature will occur today. Temperatures that have recently dipped will return back to the 60’s across the region as the cooler air from the north and northwest is replaced by a southerly flow and warmer conditions. Winds across the region will be light to moderate and from the south to southwest. Tonight mostly clear skies will remain with low temperatures in the low 40’s and 30’s. Winds will remain moderate from the south. Tomorrow the region will dry out with mostly sunny and mostly clear skies. Temperatures will return to the lower 60’s on southerly winds that will begin to turn back to a predominantly northerly direction during the day. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will remain in and around the Arbuckle Mountains. Nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 20’s in the areas around the Arbuckle Mountains.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northward today on moderate winds from the south. On the ground, moderate winds will dominate. The winds do not appear to have much buoyancy therefore their movement will be at or near the ground level when they first begin. Across Oklahoma today partly cloudy to clear skies will dominate with mild conditions. Partly cloudy conditions will remain overnight but temperatures will drop into the upper 30’s to the low 40’s. Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies will return to the Arbuckle Mountains and central Oklahoma. Temperatures will cool on northerly breezes . The Arbuckle Mountains will be mostly sunny tomorrow and tomorrow night. Winds will remain from the north with cooling, nighttime temperatures will be in the lower 20’s in the Arbuckle Mountains.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow as winds from the south move pollen trajectories northward over Oklahoma. Any pollen released from the Arbuckle Mountains will be added to this northerly trek from the Edwards Plateau. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today and tomorrow with little buoyancy therefore most pollen will move at ground level and be removed from impaction. Mild conditions with moderate to light wind speeds will occur across the region today and tomorrow. Overnight winds will maintain a northerly direction from predominately southerly winds tonight but begin to shift in the afternoon tomorrow. Warm conditions and moderate winds should contribute to pollen throughout the region. This is consistent with the number of patients that have contacted the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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