The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 22 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 22 – TX/OK: Across the region partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur today. Temperatures that have recently dipped from cold northwesterly winds will return back to the 60’s across the region as the cooler air is replaced by a southerly flow and warmer conditions. Winds across the region will be moderate to strong from the south. Tonight partly and mostly cloudy skies will remain with low temperatures mild in the 40’s and 50’s. Winds will remain moderate, 10 to 15 miles per hour from the south. Tomorrow, partly sunny to mostly sunny skies will return. Temperatures bounce back into the upper 60’s and 70’s. Winds will be from the south and southwest at moderate levels. Tomorrow night winds will begin to turn back to more of a northerly flow. This turn will affect all regions except for the surrounding communities of Austin down to San Antonio. Nightime temperatures will decrease into the 30’s over the Plateau and northward into Oklahoma they will fall into the 20’s. In the eastern portion of the forecast area 40’s to 50 will remain for low temperatures on Sunday night. The colder temperatures will be brought by moderate winds from the north and northwest. Warmer conditions will remain along with a southwesterly flow in the edge communities.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northward today on moderate winds from the south. On the ground, moderate winds will dominate. The winds do not appear to have much buoyancy therefore their movement will be at or near the ground level when they first begin. Across Texas today mostly cloudy skies will predominate and winds will remain moderate from the south to southwest. Tonight and tomorrow the southerly winds will begin to switch to a more westerly direction. Skies will clear into tomorrow with temperatures returning into the 60’s and 70’s. Winds will continue to move the trajectories to the north and northeasterly. Across the Plateau tomorrow night colder temperatures will move into the area on northwesterly winds. Temperatures in all regions but the communities around the edge of the Edwards Plateau will drop into the low 40’s and 30’s. The edge communities will be milder with lows in the 40’s and 50’s

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow as warm winds from the south move trajectories northward over northern Texas and Oklahoma. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today and tomorrow with moderate buoyancy projected, therefore most pollen will move at ground level and be removed from impaction but entrainment is possible. Mild conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau and to the east today. Overnight winds will maintain a northerly direction from predominately southerly winds. Tonight’s conditions will be mild, influenced by the warmer southerly breezes. Warm conditions and moderate winds should contribute to pollen throughout the region. This is consistent with the number of patients that have contacted the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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