The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, December 23 – TX/OK: Across the region a mix of conditions will occur heading towards Christmas day. Skies to the north today will be partly cloudy across Oklahoma and partly sunny to the south over much of Texas. The Edwards Plateau region, however will be partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures to the north will be in the 50’s whereas across Texas most areas will return to the 70’s. The warm conditions across Texas will be brought by moderate southwesterly winds. In Oklahoma the dominant winds will be from the north and will bring cooler conditions. Tonight mostly clear skies will dominate with partly cloudy conditions in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. The area from Austin to San Antonio can expect fog to develop. To the north temperatures will be in the 20’s warming southward with Dallas expected to be in the 40’s and the edge communities in the 50’s. The Plateau, especially to the west will be in the 30’s overnight. By the morning a more predominantly northerly to northwesterly breeze will take over. Tomorrow will see partly cloudy skies to the north and building in over the Edwards Plateau during the afternoon. The eastern areas will remain mostly sunny after morning fog burns off. Temperatures will reach into the 40’s to the north, 50’s in north Texas, and 60’s to 70 in the areas surrounding the eastern Edwards Plateau. Over the Edwards Plateau to the west will remain in the upper 60’s. Winds will be light approaching moderate from the north except on the Edwards Plateau where a south to southeasterly wind will blow lightly. Tomorrow night will see the biggest change with partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region. There will be a chance of precipitation across the entire forecast region. In the north temperatures will be in the 20’s meaning a potential white Christmas. Across Texas warmer conditions will mean rain instead of snow but temperatures will be cooler with the warmest areas in the low 50’s and 40’s. The Plateau will be in the upper 30’s in most areas. Winds will be moderate from the southwest across the Plateau. In the surrounding communities to the east light winds from the east will prevail.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move primarily eastward and then southeastward today on moderate winds from the northwest. On the ground, moderate winds will start the day but these will decline to light and variable conditions. The winds do not appear to be more buoyant than recent days therefore their movement will have a chance to move pollen southeast towards Texas and north Louisiana. Across Oklahoma today skies will begin partly cloudy then become mostly clear overnight. Temperatures overnight will be cold with light winds from the north. Tomorrow cold conditions will remain with highs remaining in the 40’s and low’s back into the 20’s. There will be a chance of precipitation tomorrow night with temperatures in the 20’s resulting in a white Christmas.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low threat Tomorrow *** moderate conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow as cold winds from the north move across the region. Moderate conditions for entrainment and moderate to poor conditions for transport will occur today and tomorrow. Significant amounts of pollen are expected to be transported over Eastern Texas from the Edwards Plateau population. However, the Arbuckles will remain cold today and tomorrow. Little pollen is expected to be contributed from the Arbuckle population, but travel into Texas will result in greater exposure. This is consistent with the number of patients that have contacted the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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