The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sunday, December 23 – TX/OK: Across the region a mix of conditions will occur heading towards Christmas day. Skies to the north today will be partly cloudy across Oklahoma and partly sunny to the south over much of Texas. The Edwards Plateau region, however will be partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures to the north will be in the 50’s whereas across Texas most areas will return to the 70’s. The warm conditions across Texas will be brought by moderate southwesterly winds. In Oklahoma the dominant winds will be from the north and will bring cooler conditions. Tonight mostly clear skies will dominate with partly cloudy conditions in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. The area from Austin to San Antonio can expect fog to develop. To the north temperatures will be in the 20’s warming southward with Dallas expected to be in the 40’s and the edge communities in the 50’s. The Plateau, especially to the west will be in the 30’s overnight. By the morning a more predominantly northerly to northwesterly breeze will take over. Tomorrow will see partly cloudy skies to the north and building in over the Edwards Plateau during the afternoon. The eastern areas will remain mostly sunny after morning fog burns off. Temperatures will reach into the 40’s to the north, 50’s in north Texas, and 60’s to 70 in the areas surrounding the eastern Edwards Plateau. Over the Edwards Plateau to the west will remain in the upper 60’s. Winds will be light approaching moderate from the north except on the Edwards Plateau where a south to southeasterly wind will blow lightly. Tomorrow night will see the biggest change with partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region. There will be a chance of precipitation across the entire forecast region. In the north temperatures will be in the 20’s meaning a potential white Christmas. Across Texas warmer conditions will mean rain instead of snow but temperatures will be cooler with the warmest areas in the low 50’s and 40’s. The Plateau will be in the upper 30’s in most areas. Winds will be moderate from the southwest across the Plateau. In the surrounding communities to the east light winds from the east will prevail.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move primarily eastward today on moderate winds from the southwest. On the ground, moderate winds will dominate. The winds do not appear to be more buoyant than recent days therefore their movement will have a chance to mover pollen across Eastern Texas then slightly to the northeast. Across Texas today skies will be mostly sunny. It will be on the Edwards Plateau where mostly cloudy and partly cloudy conditions will prevail. Temperatures will be warm and thus pollen release is expected. The winds will be moderate providing the chance entrainment and travel. Tonight temperatures will drop into the 30’s across the Plateau and tomorrow high temperatures will fall by 10 or so degrees. Tomorrow pollen release will also occur ahead of the changes that are expected to occur overnight on Christmas eve.


OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow as warm winds from the southwest move trajectories eastward over eastern Texas and then slightly to the northeast. Good conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today and tomorrow with buoyant conditions projected. Significant amounts of pollen are expected to be transported over Eastern Texas. Temperatures in the 70’s today and 60’s tomorrow with moderate wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau and move pollen to the east today. Overnight winds will switch from a southwesterly direction to a more northerly direction, then swirl back to a northeasterly direction tomorrow and tomorrow night. Over the entire region a general swirling of the winds will occur over the next two days. With all that being said, warm conditions and moderate winds should contribute to pollen release, entrainment and travel throughout the region. This is consistent with the number of patients that have contacted the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page