The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, December 24 and December 25 – TX/OK: Across the region today will begin with a mix of conditions heading towards a significant degradation of conditions late this afternoon, and into tomorrow. Today skies will begin as partly cloudy to the north and across the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities northward into the Dallas/Fort Worth region skies will be sunny to begin the day but will also gain cloudy conditions through the day. Temperatures today will remain in the 60’s across the Plateau, with the edge communities in the lower 70’s and upper 60’s. Winds will be from the north and northeast building to moderate levels during the day. Across the Edwards Plateau winds will come from the east. The easterly wind direction will build in moisture with cloudy skies building over the region by the evening. With the added moisture a significant chance of showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this evening, with the Dallas to Austin and San Antonio corridor expecting to have a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures overnight will be mild dropping into the 40’s and 50’s. Over the Plateau temperatures tonight will be 10 degrees cooler, dropping into the lower 40’s and upper 30’s. Winds across the area will be from the east to southeast bringing in moisture. In Oklahoma cold conditions will occur with most areas beginning to drop into the 20’s and 30’s. On Christmas Day Conditions will continue to deteriorate with cold strong winds building from the north and northwest. Cloudy skies will predominate across Oklahoma and the Edwards Plateau will see partly cloudy skies. In the edge communities sunny conditions will begin the day but there will be an increasing chance of showers of rain and thunderstorms. Across Oklahoma the precipitation is likely to arrive as snow. Temperatures across the north will remain in the 20’s and 30’s for Christmas day. Over the Edwards Plateau temperatures will barely rise into the 50’s and in the edge communities temperatures will reach into the low 60’s. Winds will be strong across the region with gusts into the 30 to 40 and even 45 mile per hour range. Overnight the region will be very cold. Low temperatures on Christmas evening will be in the teens and twenties. Across Oklahoma and northern Texas there will be snow and flurries.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northeastward early on southeasterly winds but by tonight the northerly flow will take over. Cool conditions will occur ahead of the weather changes beginning this evening and overnight. The winds will begin to turn to a more southerly flow beginning in the north. As this occurs there will be an increasing chance of rain showers and thunderstorms turning to snow. Tomorrow the chance of snow will remain. The plateau to the south will be clear to partly cloudy conditions but temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40’s. Winds will remain very strong from the northwest. Tomorrow night cold temperatures take over with most areas in the 20’s to high teens. Skies will be clear except for the north where moisture and snow will move across the area.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today and Low threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Cold conditions and moisture is moving into the region causing cloudy conditions and a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tomorrow. Tomorrow into tomorrow night will be very cold as a northerly flow takes over the region. The region is expecting snow. Good conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today as the fronts move through the region this afternoon, but the chance of moisture and very cold conditions will tend to wash out any entrained pollen. Temperatures will be in the low 40’s today and just barely reaching above freezing tomorrow with strong wind speeds across the region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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