The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, December 24 and December 25 – TX/OK: Across the region today will begin with a mix of conditions heading towards a significant degradation of conditions late this afternoon, and into tomorrow. Today skies will begin as partly cloudy to the north and across the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities northward into the Dallas/Fort Worth region skies will be more sunny to begin the day but will also gain cloudy conditions through the day. Temperatures today will remain in the 60’s across the Plateau, with the edge communities in the lower 70’s and upper 60’s. Winds will be from the north and northeast building to moderate levels over during the day. Across the Edwards Plateau winds will come from the east. The easterly wind direction will build in moisture with cloudy skies building over the region by the evening. With the added moisture a significant chance of showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this evening, with the Dallas to Austin and San Antonio corridor expecting to have a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures overnight will be mild dropping into the 40’s and 50’s. Over the Plateau temperatures tonight will be 10 degrees cooler, dropping into the lower 40’s and upper 30’s. Winds across the area will be from the east to southeast bringing in moisture. In Oklahoma cold conditions will occur with most areas beginning to drop into the 20’s and 30’s. On Christmas Day Conditions will continue to deteriorate with cold strong winds building from the north and northwest. Cloudy skies will predominate across Oklahoma and the Edwards Plateau will see partly cloudy skies. In the edge communities sunny conditions will begin the day but there will be an increasing chance of showers of rain and thunderstorms. Across Oklahoma the precipitation is likely to arrive as snow. Temperatures across the north will remain in the 20’s and 30’s for Christmas day. Over the Edwards Plateau temperatures will barely rise into the 50’s and in the edge communities temperatures will reach into the low 60’s. Winds will be strong across the region with gusts into the 30 to 40 and even 45 mile per hour range. Overnight the region will be very cold. Low temperatures on Christmas evening will be in the teens and twenties. Across Oklahoma and northern Texas there will be snow and flurries.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau moves northward early on southerly winds but by tomorrow the northerly flow will take over. Moderately warm conditions will occur ahead of the weather changes beginning this evening and overnight. The winds will begin to turn to a more southerly flow beginning in the north. As this occurs there will be an increasing chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow the chance of rain will remain to the north and across the edge communities. The plateau will clear to partly cloudy conditions but temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40’s. Winds will remain very strong from the northwest, with gusts in the 40+ miles per hour. Tomorrow night cold temperatures take over with most areas in the 20’s to high teens. Skies will be clear except for the north where moisture and snow will move across the area.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Poor threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow. Cold conditions and moisture is moving into the region causing cloudy conditions and a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tomorrow. Tomorrow night will be very cold as a northerly flow takes over the region. Good conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today as the fronts move through the region this afternoon, but the chance of rain will tend to wash out any entrained pollen. Temperatures in the 60’s today and just barely reaching the 60’s tomorrow with very strong wind speeds across the region. northeasterly winds will back moisture into the Texas region resulting in a significant chance of rain tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow very cold conditions will arrive with tomorrow night’s temperatures in the teens and twenties.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Monday

Tuesday

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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