The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 26 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather begins to climb back from the storm that passed through mid-portion of the country over the holiday. Conditions will be cold today but begin to warm tomorrow, especially in the southern forecast area. Starting to the north, in Oklahoma today mostly sunny skies will occur with moderate winds from the northwest. Through the day the winds will relax especially along the border with Texas. Temperatures will work to get into the upper 30’s. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will return and temperatures will fall into the upper teens. Across Texas today mostly sunny conditions will occur along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau northward into the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area. Temperatures will work to get into the mid to upper 40’s with a dominantly northerly flow at moderate levels. Austin may be especially gusty with the potential of 25 mph gusts this morning and afternoon. To the west across the Edwards Plateau partly cloudy skies will build into cloudy skies during the day. Winds will be from the north in the western most communities, changing to an eastern source at light levels later in the day. The other communities on the Edwards Plateau will experience the easterly winds earlier. Temperatures will be in the mid to low 40’s for their high temperatures today. Overnight mostly cloudy skies will predominate with temperatures in the mid to low 20’s. Winds will be out of the south at light to moderate levels. Tomorrow, the northern areas will continue to be cold with southerly winds at moderate levels. High temperatures will barely get into the upper 30’s to 40 degrees. Tomorrow night mostly to partly cloudy skies will occur with temperatures in the 20’s and light winds. In Texas Tomorrow will be sunny to mostly sunny across the region. Temperatures will begin to warm on winds from the south at light to moderate levels. High temperatures for most of the region will be in the 50’s. It should be in the upper 50’s to 60 in the southernmost communities along the edge of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will build back in. Lows will drop into the 40’s in the edge communities with a 20% chance of showers in the Austin area. On the Plateau low temperatures will be in the mid to low 30’s. Winds will remain from the southwest at light to moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southward today then turn this evening and move northwards tonight and tomorrow. On the ground, light to moderate winds will dominate. Temperatures today and tomorrow will begin to recover from the storm that moved through the area on Christmas day. The winds do not appear to be more buoyant than recent days. Skies will be mostly sunny in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau and partly to mostly cloudy on the Plateau, itself. Tonight low temperatures will fall well into the upper teens and twenties. Dense air will move northward on lite to moderate winds. Tomorrow the southerly flow will be maintained at lite to moderate levels. Conditions will begin to warm and temperatures in the 50’s will occur across the Texas tree population.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today and Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow as the area warms from the incursion of very cold air from the north. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today and tomorrow with heavy cold air and only lite to moderate winds. Very little pollen is expected to be released today. Tomorrow, local pollen will have a greater chance of release but the recent cold snap and precipitation usually delays pollination for a day or so until warm conditions dries the area out. Temperatures in the 40’s0’s today and moving into the 50’s tomorrow but with lite to moderate wind speeds should reduce the amount of pollen released. Lite to moderate wind speeds and cold dense air should keep anything entrained within the air, close to the ground where it is easily removed by impaction on other plants and obstacles. Overnight winds will remain from the southerly bringing warming tomorrow. Local pollination may begin again tomorrow and then the season will begin to progress. We are beginning to get into the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contact the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes as the temperatures warm.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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