The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 27 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather begins to climb back from cold conditions. Today and tonight winds will be from the south at moderate levels with sunny and partly sunny skies. In Oklahoma today partly cloudy skies will occur with high temperatures in the low to mid 40’s. Winds will be from the south to southeast at moderate levels. Towards the evening mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies will build and low temperatures will fall into the 20’s. Winds will become light and variable. Across Texas today, mostly sunny skies will occur to the east and partly cloudy skies will occur over the Edwards Plateau. High temperatures will run from the upper 40’s in the Dallas/Fort Worth area into the 50’s to low 60’s across the central Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain at lite to moderate from the south. Overnight the edge communities will build fog with the potential of drizzle. The region will stay above the freezing point with temperatures in the 30’s to the north and across the Edwards Plateau, and in the 40’s in the surrounding edge communities. Early morning winds will begin to switch back, coming from the northwest for Friday. On Friday, the northern areas will have an increasing chance of showers from southern Oklahoma across the Dallas/Fort Worth metro areas and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. There is a 20% chance of showers along with fog and drizzle in these areas. Conditions will be warm and humid. High temperatures to the north will remain in the 40’s today but along the Edwards Plateau temperatures will warm into the 60’s. The western side of the Edwards Plateau will rise into the upper 50’s. Winds will be lite to moderate from the northwest throughout the day and overnight. Skies will be mostly clear allowing for a cool down Friday night. Low temperatures will fall into the 30’s in the surrounding communities and into the 20’s across the Plateau. Winds will remain from the northwest at lite to moderate levels.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northward and then are moved to the northeast tonight as winds switch to a northwesterly flow. On the ground, light to moderate winds will occur across the region. Cold conditions from the storm earlier in the week will remain. Today’s high in the Arbuckle Mountains is expected to be only in the mid 40’s and that will fall into the low 40’s tomorrow, along with a 20% chance of showers tomorrow as well. Winds will be relatively stable across the region. Tonight low temperatures will fall below freezing with readings in the upper 20’s. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will occur with a 20% chance of showers and high temperatures only in the lower 40’s. Tomorrow night most areas will fall into the lower 20’s with moderate winds.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow as the area remains in the 40’s. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today and tomorrow with cool air and only lite to moderate winds. In addition tomorrow there is a 20% chance of showers with heightened humidity levels. Conditions will not improve tomorrow but will continue to be cold during the day and at night. Temperatures in the 40’s today and tomorrow with lite to moderate wind speeds and high humidity should limit any pollen release. If you are traveling southward into Texas, we continue to have patients contact the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes. Areas outside of the tree population will have less chance of exposure.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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