The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 27 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather begins to climb back from cold conditions. Today and tonight winds will be from the south at moderate levels with sunny and partly sunny skies. In Oklahoma today partly cloudy skies will occur with high temperatures in the low to mid 40’s. Winds will be from the south to southeast at moderate levels. Towards the evening mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies will build and low temperatures will fall into the 20’s. Winds will become light and variable. Across Texas today, mostly sunny skies will occur to the east and partly cloudy skies will occur over the Edwards Plateau. High temperatures will run from the upper 40’s in the Dallas/Fort Worth area into the 50’s to low 60’s across the central Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain at lite to moderate from the south. Overnight the edge communities will build fog with the potential of drizzle. The region will stay above the freezing point with temperatures in the 30’s to the north and across the Edwards Plateau, and in the 40’s in the surrounding edge communities. Early morning winds will begin to switch back, coming from the northwest for Friday. On Friday, the northern areas will have an increasing chance of showers from southern Oklahoma across the Dallas/Fort Worth metro areas and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. There is a 20% chance of showers along with fog and drizzle in these areas. Conditions will be warm and humid. High temperatures to the north will remain in the 40’s today but along the Edwards Plateau temperatures will warm into the 60’s. The western side of the Edwards Plateau will rise into the upper 50’s. Winds will be lite to moderate from the northwest throughout the day and overnight. Skies will be mostly clear allowing for a cool down Friday night. Low temperatures will fall into the 30’s in the surrounding communities and into the 20’s across the Plateau. Winds will remain from the northwest at lite to moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northward and off to the northeast crossing southeastern Oklahoma today. Overnight winds will eventually turn, coming from the northwest at lite to moderate levels for tomorrow. On the ground, light to moderate winds will occur across the region. The edge communities may experience slightly higher flow than over the Plateau. Temperatures today and tomorrow will continue to increase with high’s across the Texas in the mid to lower 60’s and upper 50’s. The winds continue to appear as buoyant as in recent days. Tonight low temperatures will stay above freezing with readings in the 30’s and 40’s. Tomorrow night most areas will flirt with the freezing levels in the surrounding communities and into the 20’s across the Edwards Plateau and northward towards Oklahoma.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow as the area warms into the upper 50’s and lower 60’s. Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today and tomorrow with cool air and only lite to moderate winds. Pollen is expected to be released today, because we are entering into the main portion of the pollination period. However, yesterday’s recorded levels appear to be minor. Conditions will be improving but will continue to be cold at night and there will be increasing humidity across the region tomorrow. Temperatures in the 50’s to low 60’s today and tomorrow but with lite to moderate wind speeds and high humidity should reduce the amount of pollen released. Lite to moderate wind speeds and cool denser air should keep entrained pollen close to the ground where it is easily removed by impaction on other plants and obstacles. Overnight winds will remain from relatively light but switch from a southerly direction moving in from the northwest tomorrow. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contact the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes. Areas outside of the tree population will have less chance of exposure.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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