The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Moderate

San Antonio

Moderate

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2012


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Friday, December 28 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to climb back from cold conditions earlier in the week. However, today, tonight and tomorrow winds will be from the north once again bringing cold air into the region. This morning across Oklahoma and northern portions of Texas fog and drizzle are in the forecast. There is a 40% chance of snow in Oklahoma City and 20% chance of snow in the Arbuckle Mountains. A good chance of drizzle will occur in Dallas southward along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau, through Austin as well as San Antonio. High temperatures today will remain in the 30’s in Oklahoma but will warm to the 40’s, 50’s and mid 60’s through Dallas, Austin and San Antonio. On the Edwards Plateau, mostly sunny skies will occur with temperatures from the mid 40’s to mid 50’s. Across the entire region winds will be moderate from the north building towards the afternoon with many areas having gusts as high as 30 mph. Tonight mostly clear skies will remain with very cold conditions. In Oklahoma low temperatures in the teens will be widespread. To the south in Texas expect temperatures in the 20’s overnight region wide. Winds will remain at moderate levels from the north and northwest. Tomorrow, a slight warming will occur with sunny skies across the area. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the low to mid 40’s and winds will be light and variable. In Texas high temperatures will reach into the mid-50’s. Winds will be from the north and northeast, except on the Edwards Plateau where a east to southeasterly wind will signal a shift that will continue into the evening. Winds will be lite at 5 to 10 mph. Tomorrow night low temperatures will once again drop into the mid 20’s across the region. Winds will be light from the northeast in most areas except the Edwards Plateau where winds will be from the southeast.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southward today, tonight and tomorrow on northerly to northeasterly winds. On the ground, moderate to strong winds will occur across the region today with gusts this afternoon in the 30 mph range. Cold conditions from the storm earlier in the week will remain. Today’s high on the Edwards Plateau is expected to be only in the upper 40’s to low and mid 50’s. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow. Tonight low temperatures will fall well below freezing with readings in the lower 20’s. Tomorrow sunny skies will occur and high temperatures will once again just make it into the mid 50’s. Tomorrow night most areas will return into the mid to lower 20’s with lite winds.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. The area warms into the mid to upper 50’s today. Moderate to good conditions for entrainment and transport will occur today with cold air and moderate to gusty wind conditions. Pollen is expected to be released today once the area warms from the cold evening hours. However, yesterday’s recorded levels appear to be minor. Conditions will be improving but will continue to be cold at night and there will be high humidity across the region this morning with fog and drizzle in many areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will mostly be in the 50’s today and tomorrow but with moderate to gusty wind speeds and high humidity should liberate and move some pollen. Moderate to strong wind speeds but with cool denser air should keep entrained pollen close to the ground where it is easily removed by impaction on other plants and obstacles. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes. Areas outside of the tree population will have less chance of exposure today with the cold conditions.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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