The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 29 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally cool with high temperatures climbing into the 50’s during the day and toying with freezing temperatures at night. Sunny skies will occur across Oklahoma, southward through the Dallas/Fort Worth region and around the Edwards Plateau. On the Edwards Plateau some cloud build up will result in partly cloudy skies. Temperatures today will be in the mid-40’s to mid-50’s from Oklahoma southward across the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be lite a variable in Oklahoma, from the north and northeast in the surrounding communities, and from the east and southeast across the Plateau. Overnight mostly clear skies will occur across the region except for the Edwards Plateau, where the partly cloudy skies will build to mostly cloudy conditions. Temperatures will be below freezing region wide with the northern areas dropping into the low 20’s and the southernmost communities in the upper twenties. Winds will remain light and from the north to northeast, except on the Edwards Plateau where a southeasterly flow will dominate. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will build to the north and mostly cloudy skies will occur across the Edwards Plateau. Partly to mostly sunny skies will occur from Dallas/Fort Worth south towards Austin. Temperatures will be in the mid 40’s northward and into the low to mid 50’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau where there is a 20% chance of showers and temperatures will be in the low 50’s. Winds will be from the east to southeast across the region at moderate levels. Tomorrow night cloudy conditions will dominate as the south-southeasterly winds bring humidity and rain. Low temperatures will drop into the 40’s across Texas and the mid 30’s in Oklahoma, where there is a 70% chance of precipitation. In Texas there will be a 50% chance of rain on the Edwards Plateau and 30 to 40% chance in the surrounding communities. Winds will be moderate from the south to southeast.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move initially toward the southeast, then as the southeasterly winds take over tomorrow the move back towards the northwest. The air is cold and dense with temperatures barely getting into the 40’s today so the trajectories show that atmosphere moving along the ground. With very cold conditions overnight and conditions barely warming into the 40’s no pollen release is expected from the Arbuckle population. If any pollen is released the dense air and lite winds will keep it close to the population of trees and not be entrained nor move any great distance. Rain will begin to build in tomorrow and will expand tomorrow night with the entire region having a chance of precipitation




OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today and Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. The area barely warms into the low 40’s both days. Poor conditions for entrainment with lite winds and cold dense air that will predominate today and tomorrow. Pollen may be released today once the area warms from the cold evening hours but should remain very localized. Tomorrow increasing humidity across the region should dampen pollen release as the area will see a 70% chance of precipitation on Sunday night. Temperatures will mostly be in the low 40’s today and tomorrow with lite wind speeds. More moderate wind conditions will build tomorrow along with humidity. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes. Areas outside of the tree population will have less chance of exposure today and tomorrow with the cold nighttime conditions, lite winds, and increasing chance of rain over the forecast period.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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