The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 29 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally cool with high temperatures climbing into the 50’s during the day and with freezing temperatures at night. Sunny skies will occur across Oklahoma, southward through the Dallas/Fort Worth region and around the Edwards Plateau. On the Edwards Plateau some cloud build up will result in partly cloudy skies. Temperatures today will be in the mid-40’s to mid-50’s from Dallas southward across the Edwards Plateau. In Oklahoma temperatures will barely make it into the 40’s. Winds will be light and variable in Oklahoma; they will blow from the north and northeast in the surrounding communities at lite levels, and from the east and southeast across the Plateau. Overnight mostly clear skies will occur across the region except on the Edwards Plateau, where the partly cloudy skies will build to mostly cloudy. Temperatures will be below freezing region wide with the northern areas dropping into the low 20’s and the southernmost communities in the upper twenties. Winds will remain light and from the north to northeast, except on the Edwards Plateau where a southeasterly flow will dominate. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will build to the north and mostly cloudy skies will occur across the Edwards Plateau. Partly to mostly sunny skies will occur from Dallas/Fort Worth south towards Austin. Temperatures will be in the mid 40’s northward and into the low to mid 50’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau where there is a 20% chance of showers and temperatures will be in the low 50’s. Winds will be from the east to southeast across the region at moderate levels. Tomorrow night cloudy conditions will dominate as the south-southeasterly winds bring humidity and rain. Low temperatures will drop into the 40’s across Texas and the mid 30’s in Oklahoma, where there is a 70% chance of precipitation. In Texas there will be a 50% chance of rain on the Edwards Plateau and 30 to 40% chance in the surrounding communities. Winds will be moderate from the south to southeast.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move south and toward the west today on lite winds then begin to move northward as the winds switch to the southeasterly and southerly directions. The mass of the wind trajectories travel northward over west Texas in the next 48 hours. The winds appear to be buoyant along the travel path. Moderate conditions will occur today with high temperatures in the mid to low-50’s and partly cloudy skies. Tonight temperatures will go back below freezing and then tomorrow there will be increasing humidity and a building chance of rain across the Plateau. The rain that builds in tomorrow will expand tomorrow night with the entire region having a chance of precipitation

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat today and Low threat tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. The area warms into the low to mid 50’s both days. Moderate to good conditions for entrainment but lite winds will predominate for poor transport conditions. Pollen is expected to be released today once the area warms from the cold evening hours. Tomorrow increasing humidity across the Edwards Plateau should dampen pollen release although high concentrations within the population may occur. It is not expected with the rain moving in that significant levels outside of the tree’s immediate area will occur. Temperatures will mostly be in the low 50’s today and tomorrow with lite wind speeds. Moderate winds will build tomorrow along with humidity. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. In those areas with significant numbers of trees patients susceptible to J. ashei pollen should expect increasing exposure and allergy outcomes. Areas outside of the tree population will have less chance of exposure today and tomorrow with the cold nighttime conditions, lite winds, and increasing chance of rain over the forecast period.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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