The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, December 30 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally cool with high temperatures climbing into the upper 40’s and 50’s today. Warmer nights at in store tonight as warm wet conditions move into the area. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will build during the day and an increasing chance of rain will occur across the Edwards Plateau. South to southeasterly winds will be moderate as moisture moves into the area. Conditions will be region wide with Oklahoma and southeastern Texas reaching into the mid 40’s and the surrounding communities plus the central eastern Plateau just getting into the 50’s. Tonight cloudy conditions and a significant chance of rain occurs region wide. Low temperatures will be close to the daily high as the warm system moves across the area. To the north nighttime temperatures will drop by 10 degrees or so, thus Oklahoma will return to the mid 30’s. Winds will remain from the south at moderate levels. Tomorrow the chance of rain continues to be in the 50% to 70% range for the entire region. Temperatures tomorrow will move into the upper 50’s and 60’s across Texas, while Oklahoma remains in the 30’s and 40’s. Winds will continue to be moderate to strong from the south and southwest. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy skies will remain but precipitation will begin to fall off starting in the south. Winds will switch coming from the northwest and temperatures will begin to fall back into the 20’s in Oklahoma and 30’s to low 40’s across Texas.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move north across central and west central Oklahoma then off to the east in the next 48 hours. The atmosphere will not be buoyant along the pathway and thus move along the ground. Winds will be moderate increasing to strong conditions as the weather system moves through the area today and tomorrow. Marginal conditions for pollen release will occur today with temperatures in the mid 40’s, but will all of the moisture in the region any pollen released should be washed out of the air. Similar conditions will exist for tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night. Temperatures are expected to be seasonal for this time of year. Below freezing temperatures will return tomorrow night falling back into the 20’s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today and Low threat tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today with temperatures just into the mid 40’s. Tomorrow temperatures will be in the low 40’s. However significant chances of rain will build today into tonight and tomorrow The moisture will wash out any pollen entrained. For these reasons there will be poor conditions for entrainment and travel across the region today, tonight, and tomorrow. Temperatures will mostly be in the 30’s and 40’s today and tonight with moderate wind speeds. Moderate winds will build again tomorrow along with humidity and rain. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. Today and tomorrow should provide a nice break for allergy sufferers, but once the region dries out the remaining pollination season will return.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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