The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
Low |
San Antonio |
Low |
Date Issued: 30 December 2012
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Sunday, December 30 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally cool with high temperatures climbing into the upper 40’s
and 50’s today. Warmer nights at in store tonight as warm wet conditions move into the area. Partly cloudy to
mostly cloudy conditions will build during the day and an increasing chance of rain will occur across the Edwards
Plateau. South to southeasterly winds will be moderate as moisture moves into the area. Conditions will be region
wide with Oklahoma and southeastern Texas reaching into the mid 40’s and the surrounding communities plus the central
eastern Plateau just getting into the 50’s. Tonight cloudy conditions and a significant chance of rain occurs
region wide. Low temperatures will be close to the daily high as the warm system moves across the area. To the
north nighttime temperatures will drop by 10 degrees or so, thus Oklahoma will return to the mid 30’s. Winds will
remain from the south at moderate levels. Tomorrow the chance of rain continues to be in the 50% to 70% range
for the entire region. Temperatures tomorrow will move into the upper 50’s and 60’s across Texas, while Oklahoma
remains in the 30’s and 40’s. Winds will continue to be moderate to strong from the south and southwest. Tomorrow
night mostly cloudy skies will remain but precipitation will begin to fall off starting in the south. Winds will
switch coming from the northwest and temperatures will begin to fall back into the 20’s in Oklahoma and 30’s to
low 40’s across Texas.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move north across central and west central
Oklahoma in the next 48 hours. The atmosphere will be buoyant along the pathway. Winds will be moderate increasing
to strong conditions as the weather system moves through the area today and tomorrow. Marginal conditions for
pollen release will occur today, but will all of the moisture in the region any pollen released should be washed
out of the air. Similar conditions will exist for tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night. Temperatures are expected
to be relatively mild for this time of year. In Oklahoma below freezing temperatures will return tomorrow night
and colder conditions will return to Texas.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today and Low threat tomorrow *** Moderate conditions
for pollen release today and tomorrow with temperatures today in the 40’s and 50’s. Tomorrow temperatures will
be in the 50’s and 60’s. However significant chances of rain will build today into tonight and tomorrow The moisture
will wash out any pollen entrained. For these reasons there will be poor conditions for entrainment and travel
across the region today, tonight, and tomorrow. Temperatures will mostly be in the low 50’s and upper 40’s today
and tonight with moderate wind speeds. Moderate winds will build again tomorrow along with humidity and rain.
We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling
team to report strong allergy symptoms. Today and tomorrow should provide a nice break for allergy sufferers,
but once the region dries out the remaining pollination season will return.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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