The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 31 December 2012

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, December 31 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather continues to be seasonally mild with high temperatures to the north climbing into the 40’s and across Texas temperatures in the 60’s today. A dominant south to southeasterly flow will build moisture over the region today and tonight with most areas expecting rain, showers, and thunderstorms into this evening. Rain is expected across the region with those areas of western most Texas beginning to dry out this afternoon and into tonight. The remainder of the area will have the chance of snow in Oklahoma and rain southward into the east central and eastern portions of Texas tonight. In Oklahoma today temperatures will struggle to get into the low 40’s and then return back into the 30’s tonight. Across Texas warmer conditions will be on tap with the dominant south to southeasterly flow. High temperatures today will be in the 60’s with lite to moderate winds in most areas. The one exception will be the western Edwards Plateau region where strong winds will occur as the southwesterly winds are replaced by a northwesterly flow. Tonight across Texas will see lows in the 50’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau itself, temperatures will drop into the upper 30’s. Winds across the region will switch to coming from the north and northwest at moderate to lite levels. Tomorrow the chance of showers remains to the north in Oklahoma and in the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. Temperatures will cool with high’s in the 30’s and 40’s to the north, in the 40’s and 50’s across the Plateau, and in the 50’s to 60’s in the surrounding communities. Skies overall will be mostly to partly cloudy. Winds will be moderate from the north. Tomorrow night colder temperatures will move in on the northerly winds. Temeperatures are expected in the 20’s to the north and on the Plateau. The surrounding communities of Austin and San Antonio area expected to drop into the upper 30’s to low 40’s.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northward briefly today then are overtaken by the wind change, switching from a southerly flow to a northwesterly flow, and moving southward. The ground conditions will be cool with high temperatures only reaching the low to mid 40’s today and into the mid 30’s tonight. Throughout the day there will be a chance of showers and rain. Tonight a 30% chance of drizzle will take over then a 30% chance of rain returns tomorrow. Winds will remain from the north throughout the remainder of the forecast after they turn coming from the north and northwest. Poor conditions for pollen release will occur today with the chance of region wide rain. With all of the moisture in the area any pollen released should be washed out of the air. Similar conditions will exist for tonight and portions of tomorrow. Cold temperatures are expected to return tomorrow night with readings in the low 20’s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today and Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today with temperatures just into the mid 40’s. Tomorrow temperatures will be in the low 40’s. Significant chances of rain will occur today into tonight and tomorrow The moisture will wash out any pollen entrained. For these reasons there will be poor conditions for entrainment and travel across the region today, tonight, and tomorrow. Temperatures will mostly be in the 30’s and 40’s today and tonight with moderate wind speeds. Moderate winds will build again tomorrow along with the return of humidity and rain. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. We continue to have patients contacting the modeling team to report strong allergy symptoms. Today and tomorrow should provide a nice break for allergy sufferers, but once the region dries out the remaining pollination season will return.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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