The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 December 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 18 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonably warm with Texas in the 70’s today and tomorrow slightly cooler. In southern and central Oklahoma slightly cooler conditions will prevail with high’s expected in the mid- to upper-60’s. A ridge of high pressure will remain today moving slightly eastward tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Winds will begin to increase as a system moves southward towards the southern Plains. Tomorrow similar conditions will prevail but with increasing wind from the south. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40’s to the north and in the upper 50’s across Texas. Tomorrow, in the morning mostly cloudy skies will have built in overnight and will remain across the region giving way to partly cloudy conditions in the late morning. Along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau there will be a chance of fog and drizzle in the morning. Tomorrow night, skies will become partly to mostly cloudy once again across the Edwards Plateau region. To the north partly cloudy skies will remain. Low temperatures will drop by ten degrees or more across Oklahoma whereas to the south in Texas they will remain in the 50’s and 60’s around the Edwards Plateau and the mid-40s to the west. Winds will return to calm conditions and remain from the south.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Oklahoma move northward today and tomorrow on southerly winds. Across Oklahoma today partly cloudy skies and warm conditions will dominate the entire region. Temperatures are expected to reach into the mid- to upper 60’. Winds will be moderate from the south building to strong winds this afternoon across the Oklahoma region. Overnight the winds will maintain their strength. Tonight across Oklahoma temperatures will drop into the upper 40’s to the north and 50’s to the south. Tomorrow morning partly cloudy skies will remain with high temperatures reaching back into the mid to upper 60’s. Winds will return to moderate conditions from 15 to 25 m.p.h.. Tomorrow night areas will remain partly cloudy. Temperatures will begin to drop into the lower 30’s to the north and mid 40’s closer to the Texas border. Winds will remain at moderate conditions coming from the south.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with good conditions for entrainment and transport both days. Mild conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur across the Edwards Plateau and into southern Oklahoma today and tomorrow. Associated with changing weather, cloudy conditions will build overnight to the south. Tomorrow, temperatures will remain in the 60’s and 70’s. The dominant southerly flow will move any entrained pollen northward. Therefore the communities at risk are north of the primary populations in central Texas, Oklahoma as well as northeastern Arkansas. However, the season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is just beginning, there is limited amounts of pollen ready to be shed. A recent canvas of a number of Texas locations showed large numbers of cones but very few of them actively shedding their pollen load. The warm temperatures will continue to ripen the cones, which is a process that sets the stage for heavy release in the near future.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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