The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 December 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 19 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue to be seasonably warm today with 70s across Texas and the upper 60s to the north in Oklahoma. Skies to the north will be partly cloudy, whereas across the Texas region mostly cloudy skies will occur early then breaking into partly cloudy conditions during the afternoon. In the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau there is a chance of fog and drizzle this morning, but it will clear by the mid-morning. Winds will be from the south ranging from 10 to 20 miles per hour. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will continue across Oklahoma. In Texas partly cloudy conditions will begin the evening moving towards cloudy and mostly cloudy conditions overnight. Low temperatures will be mild with 50s and 60s in communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. To the west cooler conditions will push the lows into the 40s and to the north, in Oklahoma, mid 40s will occur near the border with Texas and into the lower 30s north towards Oklahoma City. By tomorrow morning, increasing humidity will result an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms across Texas. Most areas will have a 20% chance during the day. The chance of rain will increase overnight with the west having the greatest chance of precipitation 50%-70%, and to the east 30%-40%. North in Oklahoma there will be an 80% chance of precipitation tomorrow night. Temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s tomorrow across Texas. As the front moves south across Oklahoma temperatures will begin to drop. By Saturday cooler weather will push into Texas. Temperatures on Friday night will remain mild, in the 50s and 60s especially across central and southern regions of Texas. To the north Oklahoma will be in the low 30s with winds coming from the north. As the front moves south winds will begin to switch across Texas as well.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move north to the northeast today on southerly winds ahead of a cold front that will move southward over the next couple of days. Winds will be initially from the south at 10 to 20 miles per hour, until the cold front moves in. At that time winds will become stronger and switch to northerly winds with the change of weather systems but then will calm back to low levels with the colder atmosphere. The trajectories will flow northward on southerly winds during the forecast period following the frontal edge. The characteristics of the atmosphere should be buoyant and rising in this area which can entrain and carry pollen long distances. Once the front moves in, cold dense air will predominate with little buoyancy and thus a small chance of moving pollen any distance.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in most of the populations areas. There is also, good conditions for entrainment and transport both days with moderate winds and lots of turbulence at the front edge of the system that is moving south. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is just beginning with little indication of pollen in the atmosphere. Therefore there may be limited amounts of pollen ready to be shed and thus little pollen in the atmosphere. A recent canvas of the trees across Texas showed that the cones are getting ready to shed pollen, and that there are significant cones on the trees, but they are not yet ripe in most areas. .

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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