The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, December 20 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be increasingly wet today and tomorrow. Across Texas today’s temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm with readings in the 70s in most places. To the north, however, a cold front will drop through Oklahoma causing temperatures to fall into the low 30s in central portions and low 40s near the border with Texas. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy, region wide. In Texas winds will be light to moderate from the south across the northern portion of the state and from the east to northeast in west Texas. Oklahoma will experience northerly breezes bringing colder conditions. Overnight clouds will prevail and the chance of rain and showers will increase. In Oklahoma, northern areas are expected to see near freezing conditions resulting in snow, sleet, or freezing rain. The chance of rain across Texas will increase to 70% to 100% overnight. Tomorrow cloudy and mostly cloudy conditions will be maintained. The chance of rain across Texas and freezing rain, snow or sleet in Oklahoma will continue unabated. High temperatures in Texas will return into the 60s and low 70s with cooler conditions to the west. Cold high temperatures in the low 30s and low 40s will occur in Oklahoma. Clearing will begin in the late afternoon from the southwest proceeding towards the east and northeast. The greatest chance of precipitation will be in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will pick up to moderate and moderately strong conditions from the southwest as the precipitation moves east. Tomorrow night snow will linger in Oklahoma with temperatures below freezing whereas to the south mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions will prevail, temperatures will be in the upper 30s and 40s with light winds from the west.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move north to the northeast today on southerly winds as a cold front move southward. Once it has arrived northerly winds will take over. Winds will be turning from the south to the northerly direction at 10 to 20 miles per hour in the early morning hours. The trajectories will flow northeasterly on during the forecast period following the frontal edge. The characteristics of the atmosphere is very dense thus only the upper atmosphere will continue to move out of the region, at lower elevations the dense air will significantly hamper the movement of the air mass beyond a relatively short distance. Once the front moves to the east, tomorrow evening, conditions should improve.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in most of the populations areas. There are also poor conditions for entrainment and transport both days with moderate precipitation forecast across the region. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is just beginning with little indication of pollen in the atmosphere. Therefore there may be limited amounts of pollen ready to be shed and thus little pollen in the atmosphere. A recent canvas of the trees across Texas showed that the cones are getting ready to shed pollen, and that there are significant cones on the trees, but they are not yet ripe in most areas

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page