The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2013


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Friday, December 20 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be increasingly wet today and tomorrow. Across Texas today’s temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm with readings in the 70s in most places. To the north, however, a cold front will drop through Oklahoma causing temperatures to fall into the low 30s in central portions and low 40s near the border with Texas. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy, region wide. In Texas winds will be light to moderate from the south across the northern portion of the state and from the east to northeast in west Texas. Oklahoma will experience northerly breezes bringing colder conditions. Overnight clouds will prevail and the chance of rain and showers will increase. In Oklahoma, northern areas are expected to see near freezing conditions resulting in snow, sleet, or freezing rain. The chance of rain across Texas will increase to 70% to 100% overnight. Tomorrow cloudy and mostly cloudy conditions will be maintained. The chance of rain across Texas and freezing rain, snow or sleet in Oklahoma will continue unabated. High temperatures in Texas will return into the 60s and low 70s with cooler conditions to the west. Cold high temperatures in the low 30s and low 40s will occur in Oklahoma. Clearing will begin in the late afternoon from the southwest proceeding towards the east and northeast. The greatest chance of precipitation will be in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will pick up to moderate and moderately strong conditions from the southwest as the precipitation moves east. Tomorrow night snow will linger in Oklahoma with temperatures below freezing whereas to the south mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions will prevail, temperatures will be in the upper 30s and 40s with light winds from the west.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move mostly north and south over the state of Texas for the next two days. At the same time moisture is moving in from the west and the chance of precipitation will be increasing today for good rains tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be building from the southwest tomorrow to moderate conditions. At the same time temperatures are expected to remain mild with most highs in the 60 to 70 degree range. The trajectories will flow back and forth eventually getting northward during the forecast period. The characteristics of the atmosphere is that it will start dense but as the system moves through the region it will become more buoyant, thus as the day wears on tomorrow conditions for entrainment and travel will improve.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in most of the populations areas because of rain. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is just beginning with little indication of pollen in the atmosphere. Therefore there may be limited amounts of pollen ready to be shed and thus little pollen in the atmosphere. A recent canvas of the trees across Texas showed that the cones are getting ready to shed pollen, and that there are significant cones on the trees, but they are not yet ripe in most areas. .


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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