The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 December 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, December 23 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be clearing with cool air across the region. To the north in Oklahoma, mostly cloudy skies will begin the day but with partly cloudy skies towards evening and overnight. In Texas sunny skies will prevail today, tonight and tomorrow across the region. Temperatures in central Oklahoma will be in the upper 20s today with winds from the northeast at light levels. Southern Oklahoma will see temperatures in the upper 30s. Tonight expect the area to have lows in the teens. In Texas, the temperature gradient will continue with Dallas/Ft. Worth expected in the 40s and point southward into the mid 50s on the Edwards Plateau and upper 50s in the areas surrounding the Plateau. Winds will be primarily from a northerly direction, except to the far southwest where a more southerly flow will occur. Tonight low temperatures will be in the 20s across the region. Winds will be light. Tomorrow, sunny conditions will prevail region wide, with high’s in the 40s north and mid to upper 50s across Texas. As usual the temperatures on the Edwards Plateau will be 5 to 7 degrees cooler than in the communities surrounding the Plateau. Winds will be from the northeast to east at lite levels, except to the far west with a more southerly flow will begin to build in. Tomorrow night clouds will begin to build back in with the greater humidity moving north on the southerly breezes. Overnight temperatures will remain in the mid 20s in Oklahoma warming into the mid- to upper- 30s across Texas.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move initially towards the south to southwest on northeasterly breezes that will remain light. Overnight the winds will variable then tomorrow morning a more south to southeasterly flow will become more dominant moving the winds in a more northeasterly direction. The atmosphere will remain cold and stable with the trajectories maintaining the same elevation as it travels across the area. Cold conditions will remain with highs in the 30s today and just rising into the mid 40s tomorrow. Both tonight and tomorrow night low temperatures will be significantly below freezing. The characteristics of the atmosphere is very dense, at lower elevations the dense air will significantly hamper the movement of the air mass beyond a relatively short distance.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in most of the populations areas. There are also poor conditions for entrainment and transport both days with cold conditions across Oklahoma. The high temperature on both days will struggle to get much above freezing when pollen release occurs. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is just beginning with little indication of pollen in the atmosphere across the entire region. Therefore there may be limited amounts of pollen ready to be shed and thus little polen in the atmosphere. A recent canvas of the trees across Texas showed that the cones are getting ready to shed pollen, and that there are significant cones on the trees, but they are not yet ripe in most areas. .

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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