The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday/Wednesday, December 24/25 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be clearing with sunny skies expected today in all areas. Mild temperatures will build in with highs across Texas in the mid to upper 50s. In Oklahoma colder conditions will be maintained with high temperature readings reaching into the 40s. Winds will start the day, in Oklahoma, at moderate levels from the south. Across Texas moderate southerly breezes will also occur, while in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will begin light from the east then switching to a more southerly flow this afternoon. Tonight skies will remain mostly clear and temperatures will be in the 30s. Winds will continue from the south overnight. Tomorrow skies will be mostly cloudy across the Edwards Plateau but clearer to the north into Oklahoma. Across Oklahoma a chance of freezing fog will occur initially in the morning hours but temperatures will rise into the 40s, getting close to 50 degrees near the border with Texas. In Texas temperatures will climb into the 50s with the western areas cooler than areas to the east. Winds will be light but will switch overnight to a northerly flow. Skies across Oklahoma will remain clear tomorrow night with low temperatures in the mid- to upper 20s. Across the Edwards Plateau western areas will dip into the upper 20s with partly cloudy skies. Across the eastern Plateau area and in the surrounding communities warmer conditions will occur with cloud build up from Austin to San Antonio. There is a potential for mist in these areas. Winds will remain from the north and northeast at light levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move initially northwards across Oklahoma on lite southerly winds. Overnight the winds will switch from the southerly flow to a more northerly flow at the lower levels, but by this time the winds will be far enough north that they will catch westerly winds and move off to the east. Temperatures in southern Oklahoma will remain cold, barely getting into the upper 40s tomorrow. The air will be relatively dense and stable at the lowest levels thus staying near ground level. Without warmer conditions the population in the Arbuckle Mountains should have little pollen being released. With the southern populations just beginning to release pollen it certainly is on its way, but the southern Oklahoma populations have historically lagged the release further south. For those reasons we do not expect pollen release at this time

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in most of the populations areas to the south and may impact southern Oklahoma. Temperatures will be on the cool side but within the range in which pollen is released. The areas with the greatest release potential are to the south where temperatures will be a bit warmer. Over the past couple of days pollen has been recorded in San Antonio, Austin, and Waco. This suggests that the trees are beginning to release pollen. With southerly winds, communities in Texas to central Oklahoma may see pollen in the atmosphere. The seasonal temperature on both days will rise to the mid 40s in many areas with light winds. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is just beginning with little indication of pollen in the atmosphere across the entire region. However, high levels in San Antonio, and Waco along with low amounts in Austin suggests that we are nearing the season’s region-wide start. A recent canvas of the trees across Texas showed significant numbers of cones are ready to shed pollen.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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