The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low to Moderate

Austin

Low to Moderate

San Antonio

Low to Moderate

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2013


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Tuesday/Wednesday, December 24/25 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be clearing with sunny skies expected today in all areas. Mild temperatures will build in with highs across Texas in the mid to upper 50s. In Oklahoma colder conditions will be maintained with high temperature readings reaching into the 40s. Winds will start the day, in Oklahoma, at moderate levels from the south. Across Texas moderate southerly breezes will also occur, while in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will begin light from the east then switching to a more southerly flow this afternoon. Tonight skies will remain mostly clear and temperatures will be in the 30s. Winds will continue from the south overnight. Tomorrow skies will be mostly cloudy across the Edwards Plateau but clearer to the north into Oklahoma. Across Oklahoma a chance of freezing fog will occur initially in the morning hours but temperatures will rise into the 40s, getting close to 50 degrees near the border with Texas. In Texas temperatures will climb into the 50s with the western areas cooler than areas to the east. Winds will be light but will switch overnight to a northerly flow. Skies across Oklahoma will remain clear tomorrow night with low temperatures in the mid- to upper 20s. Across the Edwards Plateau western areas will dip into the upper 20s with partly cloudy skies. Across the eastern Plateau area and in the surrounding communities warmer conditions will occur with cloud build up from Austin to San Antonio. There is a potential for mist in these areas. Winds will remain from the north and northeast at light levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move initially northwards towards Oklahoma on light winds. Overnight the winds will switch from the southerly flow to a more northerly flow at the lower levels. At upper levels the winds will be caught in a general easterly flow as they arrive at their northern most position. Surface winds will reverse directions and move back southward. The air will be relatively dense and stable at the lowest levels thus staying near the ground level. At higher elevations the air will be more buoyant as it reaches its northerly position allowing it to get caught in the more easterly flow. The atmosphere will remain cool overnight with temperatures in the 30s, and then warm into the 50’s across Texas tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in most of the populations areas. Temperatures will be on the cool side but within the range in which pollen is released. The areas with the greatest release potential are to the south where temperatures will be a bit warmer. Over the past couple of days pollen has been recorded in San Antonio, Austin, and Waco. This suggests that the trees are beginning to release pollen. With southerly winds, communities in Texas to central Oklahoma may see pollen in the atmosphere. As the winds turn south again tonight they will trace their northward movement southward. The seasonal temperature on both days will rise to the mid 50’s in many areas with lite winds. The season of pollen release from Juniperus ashei is just beginning with little indication of pollen in the atmosphere across the entire region. However, high levels in San Antonio, and Waco along with low amounts in Austin suggests that we are nearing the season’s region-wide start. A recent canvas of the trees across Texas showed significant numbers of cones are ready to shed pollen.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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