The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low to Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2013


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Thursday, December 26 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be clearing with sunny skies expected today to the north in Oklahoma and partly cloudy in most areas of Texas. The one exception will be mostly cloudy conditions in and around the San Antonio area. There will be a 20% chance of light rain in San Antonio today and tonight. Across the region high temperatures today will be in the 50s. Winds will be from the northeast at lite values. Tonight clear skies will prevail except in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. There will be a slight chance of rain, 20%, overnight in the San Antonio region. Overnight temperatures will be at or below freezing in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities lows will be in the lower 40s. Tomorrow will be almost identical to today. Sunny skies will occur to the north and partly cloudy to cloudy conditions across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be warming into the upper 50s and low 60s in most areas. Winds will remain lite moving northward on southerly winds. The air will remain relatively stable, with little buoyancy to entrain and move any pollen shed.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northwards across Oklahoma on light southerly winds today and tomorrow. The trajectories will move towards the northeast corner of Arkansas, then the winds will get caught up with stronger winds moving across the northern portions of the central U.S. Winds will stay light from the south over the forecast period. Temperatures in southern Oklahoma will be warming, getting into the mid 50s today and warming a few degrees tomorrow. The air will be relatively dense and stable at the lowest levels thus staying near ground level. Without warmer conditions the population in the Arbuckle Mountains should have little pollen being released.


OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat Today and Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in most of the populations areas to the south and may impact southern Oklahoma. Temperatures will be warming into the 50s today and tomorrow. Over the past couple of days pollen has been recorded at low levels in San Antonio, Austin, and Waco. This suggests that the trees are beginning to release pollen. With southerly winds, communities in Texas to central Oklahoma may see pollen in the atmosphere. However, winds will be light and variable in most areas across the region today and tomorrow. For these reasons, there is little chance for long-distance transport. The seasonal temperature on both days will rise to the mid 50s in many areas with light winds. A recent canvas of the trees across Texas showed significant numbers of cones are ready to shed pollen, with warm conditions the chance of pollen in the atmosphere continues to rise.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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