The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 26 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be clearing with sunny skies expected today to the north in Oklahoma and partly cloudy in most areas of Texas. The one exception will be mostly cloudy conditions in and around the San Antonio area. There will be a 20% chance of light rain in San Antonio today and tonight. Across the region high temperatures today will be in the 50s. Winds will be from the northeast at lite values. Tonight clear skies will prevail except in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. There will be a slight chance of rain, 20%, overnight in the San Antonio region. Overnight temperatures will be at or below freezing in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities lows will be in the lower 40s. Tomorrow will be almost identical to today. Sunny skies will occur to the north and partly cloudy to cloudy conditions across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be warming into the upper 50s and low 60s in most areas. Winds will remain lite moving northward on southerly winds. The air will remain relatively stable, with little buoyancy to entrain and move any pollen shed.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move mostly northwards on light southerly winds today and tomorrow. The trajectories will move initially to the west before circling towards the north. The total distance moved over the next two days will be relatively minimal as calm southerly winds dominate the region. Winds will stay light from the south over the forecast period. Temperatures across Texas will be seasonal warming from the mid 50s today into the upper 50s tomorrow. The air will be relatively dense and stable at the lowest levels thus staying near ground level. Without warmer conditions the populations on the Edwards Plateau should have little pollen being released. In the canyons surrounding the Edwards Plateau air tends to move at higher velocities thus these are the regions where pollen exposure will be greater. With the southern populations just beginning to release pollen it certainly is on its way, but there is no current record of moderate- to high pollen concentrations.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat Today and Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in most of the populations areas to the south and may impact local areas across Texas. Temperatures will be warming into the 50s today and reach for the low 60s tomorrow. Over the past couple of days pollen has been recorded at low levels in San Antonio, Austin, and Waco. This suggests that the trees are beginning to release pollen. With southerly winds, communities in Texas to central Oklahoma may see pollen in the atmosphere. However, winds will be light and variable in most areas across the region today and tomorrow. For these reasons, there is little chance for long-distance transport. The seasonal temperature on both days will rise to the mid 50s in many areas with light winds. A recent canvas of the trees across Texas showed significant numbers of cones are ready to shed pollen, with warm conditions the chance of pollen in the atmosphere continues to rise.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page