The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, December 27 – TX/OK: Across the region today the weather will be mostly clear with sunny skies to the north and mostly cloudy skies across the Edwards Plateau. There will be a chance of showers this morning across the southwestern areas of the Plateau and along the southern edge communities. Temperatures will be in the lower 50s in these areas and the upper 50s to the north and east. Winds will be very light from the north to begin the day and then begin to turn coming from the south and southwest tonight into tomorrow. Winds will remain very calm until tomorrow night when a more dominant south to southwest breeze of five to ten miles per hour picks up. Tonight across the region low temperatures will be in the lower 30s to the north and upper 30s to low 40s across Texas. The coldest temperatures in Texas will be to the south and southwest areas of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow similar conditions will occur with mostly sunny skies north and partly cloudy skies to the south that will clear during the afternoon. Temperatures across the area will reach into the low 60s. Winds will be from the south in Dallas and northward, with south to southwest breezes over the Plateau and drainage off the Plateau into the surrounding edge communities, thus San Antonio will have northerly winds whereas Austin will experience breezes from the west. Tomorrow night will have mostly clear skies to the north with temperatures below freezing. To the south lows will be in the low 40s in the surrounding communities, and in the mid- to upper 30s across the Edwards Plateau. Winds will begin to pick up a bit with breezes building from 5 mph to 10-15 mph from the south and southwest.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains start to move slowly northward on southerly winds that are stronger than those over Texas today, then once they get north of Oklahoma will be caught up in stronger regional winds. Temperatures in the Arbuckle Mountains will be in the upper 50s over the next two days. This morning skies will be sunny but with low temperatures overnight it will take a few hours to begin to warm. Skies will then remain clear for the rest of the day, overnight and be mostly clear tomorrow and tomorrow night. Today winds will remain light throughout the afternoon and into the evening then increase to a southerly wind from 10 to 15 mph tomorrow and tomorrow night. The air will be relatively dense and stable at the lowest levels thus staying near ground level. With the low morning temperatures it is anticipated that any release from the southern Oklahoma population will be limited to the afternoon hours when the temperatures will be in the 50s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat Today and Low to Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release this afternoon and tomorrow in most of the populations to the south and these may impact local areas across southern Oklahoma. Temperatures will be warming into the 50s today and may reach the low 60’s tomorrow, however winds will be light today and only tomorrow afternoon will higher velocities build. Over the past couple of days pollen has been recorded at increasing levels in San Antonio, Austin, and Waco. This suggests that the trees are beginning to release pollen further south. Communities in Texas to central Oklahoma may see pollen in the atmosphere, however winds will be very light and the air will remain cool and dense. For these reasons, there is little chance for long-distance transport. A recent canvas of the trees across Texas showed significant numbers of cones are ready to shed pollen, with warm conditions the chance of pollen in the atmosphere continues to rise.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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