The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Friday, December 27 – TX/OK: Across the region today the weather will be mostly clear with sunny skies to the north and mostly cloudy skies across the Edwards Plateau. There will be a chance of showers this morning across the southwestern areas of the Plateau and along the southern edge communities. Temperatures will be in the lower 50s in these areas and the upper 50s to the north and east. Winds will be very light from the north to begin the day and then begin to turn coming from the south and southwest tonight into tomorrow. Winds will remain very calm until tomorrow night when a more dominant south to southwest breeze of five to ten miles per hour picks up. Tonight across the region low temperatures will be in the lower 30s to the north and upper 30s to low 40s across Texas. The coldest temperatures in Texas will be to the south and southwest areas of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow similar conditions will occur with mostly sunny skies north and partly cloudy skies to the south that will clear during the afternoon. Temperatures across the area will reach into the low 60s. Winds will be from the south in Dallas and northward, with south to southwest breezes over the Plateau and drainage off the Plateau into the surrounding edge communities, thus San Antonio will have northerly winds whereas Austin will experience breezes from the west. Tomorrow night will have mostly clear skies to the north with temperatures below freezing. To the south lows will be in the low 40s in the surrounding communities, and in the mid- to upper 30s across the Edwards Plateau. Winds will begin to pick up a bit with breezes building from 5 mph to 10-15 mph from the south and southwest.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move slowly southward on southerly winds today, then turn northward tonight and tomorrow with most winds moving northward tomorrow mid-day. The atmosphere will be very stable especially with the lack of winds to mix the air, and most areas will see very little turbulence. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s and low 60s over the next two days. This morning there will remain a chance of moisture on the Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. This will be primarily mist and light rain conditions. No real accumulation is expected. Temperatures across Texas will be seasonal warming from the upper 50s today into the low 60s tomorrow which are good conditions for pollination. The air will be relatively dense and stable at the lowest levels thus staying near ground level. The populations on the Edwards Plateau should have pollen release and there are indications in the edge communities that some pollen is in the air. In the canyons surrounding the Edwards Plateau air tends to move at higher velocities thus these are the regions where pollen exposure will be greater. With the southern populations just beginning to release pollen may be more prevalent, but there is no current record of consistent mid- to high pollen concentrations.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat Today and Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in most of the populations areas to the south and these may impact local areas across Texas. Temperatures will be warming into the 50s today and reach for the low 60s tomorrow. Over the past couple of days pollen has been recorded at increasing levels in San Antonio, Austin, and Waco. This suggests that the trees are beginning to release pollen. But with very lite wind conditions, communities in Texas to central Oklahoma may see pollen in the atmosphere. However, winds will be lite and variable in most areas across the region today and tomorrow. For these reasons, there is little chance for long-distance transport. A recent canvas of the trees across Texas showed significant numbers of cones are ready to shed pollen, with warm conditions the chance of pollen in the atmosphere continues to rise.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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