The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday/Sunday, December 28/29 – TX/OK: Across the region today the weather will be mostly sunny to the north and mostly cloudy to the south. The cloudy skies will break up to partly cloudy conditions during the afternoon. Temperatures across the region will strive to get into the 60s with those areas on the Edwards Plateau reaching the upper 50s. Winds will be light from the south in Oklahoma and northern Texas, and from the southwest across the Edwards Plateau and in the communities surrounding the Plateau. Tonight, the skies will become partly cloudy with a chance of fog in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau and north into the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. Low temperatures will be in the lower 40s in San Antonio, Austin and north into the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. In Oklahoma lows will drop into the mid 20s north and low 30s along the border. Similar 30 degree readings will occur across the Edwards Plateau towards the west. Tomorrow, mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will predominate. More sun than clouds are expected in northern Texas south into the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. These areas will see patchy morning fog as well. High temperatures will cool with most areas on the Edwards Plateau reaching only into the 40s. Warmer air will work itself into the surrounding communities with San Antonio and Austin hovering in the upper 50s to low 60s, and then back to the 40s to the north dropping into the 30s in Oklahoma. Winds will begin to pick-up Sunday afternoon with moderate conditions across the region. Many areas will see gusts of 20 to 25 miles per hour. Tomorrow night colder conditions will prevail with most areas reaching below freezing. The Plateau and Oklahoma region will be well below freezing bottoming out in the 20s. Winds will be from the north at moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move slowly northward on the dominant southwesterly winds. The winds will be light thus the trajectories move slowly across Texas today. Temperatures will build into the 60s in north Texas and in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau itself the highs will get into the upper 50s. Tonight the winds will calm and temperatures will be in the 40s except on the Plateau where they will drop into the 30s. Tomorrow, the skies will clear over the eastern and northern areas. In Austin north towards Dallas/Ft. Worth morning fog is expected. Winds will have switched overnight bringing colder air southward. High temperatures will be in the 40’s across the Edwards Plateau, and eventually move into the surrounding edge communities. Winds will pick up as this cold mass of air moves southward, with afternoon winds increasing to 15 to 20 mph in some areas. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will dominate and temperatures will hover near freezing in the warmest areas. The Plateau will be well into the lower 20s. Conditions for pollen release will be at their best Saturday afternoon. At that time light winds will still occur over most of the area thus if pollen is shed the potential for long distance transport is not particularly good.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Tomorrow *** Better conditions for pollen release today than tomorrow in most of the populations. Today light winds and dense air will affect any pollen release, with poor conditions for entrainment and travel. Pollen may be in the atmosphere, however large amounts are not expected and long distance transport will be minimal. Temperatures will be warming into the 60s in many areas and 50s across the Edwards Plateau today. Tomorrow, a cold front will move south bringing a more turbulent atmosphere but with colder conditions during the day. The turbulent change over has the potential to liberate pollen from the cones although with the colder air most will move near ground level and either settle out or be impacted on nearby obstructions. That being said, the past couple of days pollen has been recorded at increasing levels in San Antonio but initial increases in Austin, and Waco have not been sustained. This suggests that the trees are beginning to release pollen. But with mixed conditions, communities in Texas to central Oklahoma may see some pollen in the atmosphere, but not heavy accumulations. A recent canvas of the trees across Texas showed significant numbers of cones are ready to shed pollen, with warm conditions the chance of pollen in the atmosphere continues to rise.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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