The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 30 December 2013
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Monday, December 30 – TX/OK:
Across the region today and tomorrow the weather will be mild with mostly sunny to sunny skies from the north,
in Oklahoma, to the southern populations across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Clouds
this morning will begin to break up in most areas by noon but with cool conditions. Highs across the region will
remain in the upper 40s across the Edwards Plateau region and in the upper 30s to lower 40s further north. Winds
will be from the north at 5 to 10 miles per hour declining towards the evening with 5 mph winds remaining. Tonight
low temperatures will be in the lower 30s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau and in the 20s across
the rest of the region, including north across Oklahoma. The cold air will remain entrenched across the region
tomorrow, with sunny skies and slightly warmer conditions than today. Most areas will get into the mid 50s to
the east and north, whereas the western Edwards Plateau will bump up to the upper 50s. Winds will remain mostly
light, however a southerly wind will increase from the west late in the afternoon and evening. Overnight mostly
clear to clear skies will remain with lows in the mid to lower 30s. To the north across Oklahoma temperatures
will fall below freezing again.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move slowly southeastward on the
dominant north winds. The winds will be light thus the trajectories move slowly towards northern Texas today.
Over night and into tomorrow the trajectories will slowly move more northward as southerly air movement starts
on the western side of the Edwards Plateau and in Oklahoma. Over the next two days, the trajectories will remain
within the region of their initiation. High temperatures today will only reach the upper 30s but warming will
occur tomorrow with highs expected in the low to mid 50s. Tonight temperatures will drop well below freezing across
the area. Tomorrow night, after the warmer conditions, lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s along the Texas
border. Winds tonight and tomorrow night will begin to increase from the south to southwest but still at low levels.
With today temperatures and light winds, pollen release will be minimal and if in the air localized to the immediate
area of the population. Tomorrow, warmer conditions could lead to greater amounts of pollen being released in
Texas, with conditions increasing to moderate for pollen release in the Arbuckle Mountains.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow
*** Poor conditions for pollen release today and improving tomorrow. Today light winds and cold dense air
will restrict pollen release, with poor conditions for entrainment and travel. Further south, pollen may be in
the atmosphere, however large amounts are not expected and long distance transport will be minimal keeping it far
south. Temperatures will be warming only into the upper 30s in most areas. Tomorrow, warming will begin with highs
expected in the low to mid-50s. Winds will begin to switch coming out of the south to southwest tonight, however
light wind conditions will limit entrainment and travel. The past couple of days, pollen has been recorded at
increasing levels in San Antonio Austin, and Waco. Heavier concentrations are expected sooner not later. This
suggests that the trees in southern Oklahoma are ripening and will begin to shed pollen when conditions are better.
But today, with mixed conditions, communities in Texas to central Oklahoma may see some pollen in the atmosphere,
but not heavy accumulations and not a lot of entrainment and travel downwind.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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