The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 December 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, December 30 – TX/OK: Across the region today and tomorrow the weather will be mild with mostly sunny to sunny skies from the north, in Oklahoma, to the southern populations across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Clouds this morning will begin to break up in most areas by noon but with cool conditions. Highs across the region will remain in the upper 40s across the Edwards Plateau region and in the upper 30s to lower 40s further north. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 10 miles per hour declining towards the evening with 5 mph winds remaining. Tonight low temperatures will be in the lower 30s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau and in the 20s across the rest of the region, including north across Oklahoma. The cold air will remain entrenched across the region tomorrow, with sunny skies and slightly warmer conditions than today. Most areas will get into the mid 50s to the east and north, whereas the western Edwards Plateau will bump up to the upper 50s. Winds will remain mostly light, however a southerly wind will increase from the west late in the afternoon and evening. Overnight mostly clear to clear skies will remain with lows in the mid to lower 30s. To the north across Oklahoma temperatures will fall below freezing again.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move slowly southward on the dominant northerly air flow. The winds will be light thus the trajectories move slowly across Texas today. Over night and into tomorrow the trajectories will slowly turn and move more northward as southerly air movement starts on the western side of the Edwards Plateau. Over the next two days, the trajectories will remain within the region of their initiation. High temperatures today will barely get into the upper 40s but warming will occur tomorrow with highs expected in the mid to upper 50s. Tonight temperatures will drop and be at or below freezing across the area. Tomorrow night, after the warmer conditions, lows will be in the mid to upper 30s. Winds tomorrow night will begin to increase from the south to southwest but at light levels. With today temperatures in the 40s and light winds, pollen release will be low and if in the air localized to the immediate area of the population. Tomorrow, warmer conditions could lead to greater amounts of pollen being released. However, light winds will remain and thus entrainment and travel is expected to be limited. There are now indications that the southernmost populations are getting pollen into the atmosphere.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Better conditions for pollen release tomorrow than today in most of the populations. Today light winds and dense air will restrict pollen release, with poor conditions for entrainment and travel. Pollen may be in the atmosphere, however large amounts are not expected and long distance transport will be minimal. Temperatures will be warming only into the 40s in most areas. Tomorrow, warming will begin with highs expected in the mid- to upper 50s. Winds will begin to switch coming out of the south to southwest, however light wind conditions will limit entrainment and travel. The past couple of days, pollen has been recorded at increasing levels in San Antonio Austin, and Waco. Heavier concentrations are expected sooner not later. This suggests that the trees are beginning to release pollen. But with mixed conditions, communities in Texas to central Oklahoma may see some pollen in the atmosphere, but not heavy accumulations and not a lot of entrainment and travel downwind.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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