The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date
Issued: 16 December 2014
Mountain
Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional
Weather: Tuesday, Arbuckle
Mountains December 16 – TX/OK: Across the region today winds will be
flowing from the north with sunny to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 40s. Overnight winds will decrease to light
and variable conditions with temperatures into the 30s. To the south, Texas
will start the day mostly sunny but partly cloudy skies that will build in from
the southwest. The area will be in the upper 50s and to the east along
the Edwards Plateau edge into the low to mid 60s. Winds will begin from
the north and northeast switching to a more easterly and eventually
southeasterly flow overnight. Lows across the area will be in the low to
mid 40’s across the Plateau and in the upper 40’s along the I-35
corridor. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy to the north in the Arbuckle
region with a chance of showers (40 to 50%) and temperatures in the mid 40’s
with southeasterly breezes. Across Texas, cloudy conditions will build in
with mostly cloudy skies over the plateau and denser clouds in the surrounding
areas. There will be a 40 to 60% chance of rain across the Edwards
Plateau area tomorrow. The chance of rain increases from south to
north. Temperatures will be in the 50’s and winds will remain from the
east to southeast, 5 to 10 mph. Tomorrow night cloudy skies and continued
chance of rain will occur across the area. Temperatures will remain
relatively steady with only a drop of a few degrees.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains
move slowly southward on a dominant northerly air flow today. Skies will
be sunny and highs today will be in the upper 40’s. Winds will begin at levels
reaching 10 mph, but towards evening will fall off to light and variable
conditions. Overnight clouds will begin to build in with low temperatures
dropping to the mid 30’s. Tomorrow there will be a 50% chance of showers
with cloudy skies predominating. Winds will be from the southeast and
temperatures will rise into the mid 40’s. Similar conditions will remain
overnight with cloudy conditions, a 50% chance of showers and temperatures in
the lower 40s. Winds will remain from the southeast. Today
and tomorrow, the trajectories will remain within the southern Oklahoma to
north-central Texas region. A check earlier this week showed that the
Arbuckle Juniper trees were not ready to shed pollen and thus conditions are
currently poor for pollination, entrainment and travel from the southern
Oklahoma region.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions
for pollen release today and tomorrow. Today
and tomorrow light winds and moderate temperatures provide good conditions for
pollen release and entrainment. However, a check earlier in the week
shows that the cones in southern Oklahoma are not yet ripe. Therefore
there is little threat from these trees as a source of pollen. However,
over the past few days, pollen has been noted in Tulsa as well as Oklahoma City
to the north and a number of sites across Texas (see Texas forecast), therefore
symptoms of pollen allergies may be affecting individuals.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr.,
Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State
University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA
93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu