The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 December 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tues, Dec 16 – TX/OK: Across the region today winds will be flowing from the north with sunny to mostly sunny skies.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s.  Overnight winds will decrease to light and variable conditions with temperatures into the 30s. To the south, Texas will start the day mostly sunny but partly cloudy skies that will build in from the southwest.  The area will be in the upper 50s and to the east along the Edwards Plateau edge into the low to mid 60s.  Winds will begin from the north and northeast switching to a more easterly and eventually southeasterly flow overnight.  Lows across the area will be in the low to mid 40s across the Plateau and in the upper 40s along the I-35 corridor.  Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy to the north in the Arbuckle region with a chance of showers (40 to 50%) and temperatures in the mid 40’s with southeasterly breezes.  Across Texas, cloudy conditions will build in with mostly cloudy skies over the plateau and denser clouds in the surrounding areas.  There will be a 40 to 60% chance of rain across the Edwards Plateau area tomorrow.  The chance of rain increases from south to north.  Temperatures will be in the 50’s and winds will remain from the east to southeast, 5 to 10 mph.  Tomorrow night cloudy skies and continued chance of rain will occur across the area.  Temperatures will remain relatively steady with only a drop of a few degrees. 

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas move to the southwest on northeasterly winds today.  These trajectories will then change as a more southerly flow takes over.  The trajectories will then move northward over west Texas, across western Oklahoma and Kansas.   Winds will be light ranging from 5 to 10 mph, from the north to northeast today, changing tonight to a southeasterly direction that will remain during the day tomorrow.  Tomorrow night winds will return to a northeasterly flow across the Edwards Plateau.  Temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to low 60s from the edge of the Edwards Plateau, westward.  Skies will be start sunny but will build to mostly cloudy conditions tonight.  There will be an increasing chance of showers beginning tomorrow and heading into tomorrow night.  Conditions will continue to be mild with high temperatures tomorrow in the mid 50s, then tomorrow night temperatures will cool down from 5 to 10 degrees bottoming out in the mid to low 40s.  The chance of rain across the region will be from 40% to 60% tomorrow and tomorrow night. 
 
OUTLOOK: *** Mod Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** moderate conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow in the Texas populations.  Today cool conditions and bright sunshine will begin the day that will promote pollen release.  However, conditions for entrainment and travel will be moderate with light winds across the region. and a moderately dense atmosphere that will keep any entrained pollen close to the ground.  Over the past couple of days, pollen has begun to be recorded across the region.  Tomorrow, conditions will deteriorate as rain moves through the area.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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