The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 17 December 2014

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 17 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies will be cloudy with an overall flow from the south and east moving air northwards.  Winds will be in the 5 to 10 miles per hour range and showers are expected.  There will be a 50% chance of precipitation developing on the Plateau with only a 20% chance to the southwest.  Temperatures across the Edwards Plateau will be in the 50s.  To the north in Dallas and towards Oklahoma highs will be in the 40s.  The chance of rain will be greater to the north with the border area around Ardmore expecting a 70% chance of rain.  Cloudy skies will remain across the region tonight and throughout tomorrow.  The chance of rain will continue throughout the evening with mild temperatures.  Lows will generally be within 10 degrees of today’s high.  Readings in the mid to upper 40s and low 50s will be the norm overnight.  Tomorrow the clouds will remain, but the chance of rain will diminish with most areas having only a 20% chance.  The communities around the edge of the Edwards Plateau should expect fog and warming during the daytime.  Highs on Thursday will be in the middle 60s with light winds from the south to southeast.  In north Texas and across southern Oklahoma similar conditions will occur but with temperatures only reaching into the upper 40s and low 50s.  Thursday night the chance of rain returns with the region having a 50% to 60% across Texas and a 20% chance across central and southern Oklahoma.  The preceding dominant southerly wind flow will give way to northeasterly winds, bringing slightly cooler air into the region.  Temperatures over the Plateau will be in the 40s with the edge communities remaining in the low 50s.  North Texas and southern Oklahoma will be in the 30s. Wednesday, December 17

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma move to the north, on south to southeasterly winds today, tonight and then curve back around to the south.  Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s today and 40s tomorrow.  Tonight and tomorrow night temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s.  Throughout the period a chance of rain is in the forecast.  Today there is a 70% chance of showers over the region, declining to 50% tonight.  Tomorrow the chance of precipitation drops to 20% throughout the day and into the evening. 


OUTLOOK: *** Poor to Moderate Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Poor to moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in the Arbuckle population because the chance of rain will occur during the forecast period.  Yesterday’s regional pollen levels along with discovery of cones shedding pollen in the Arbuckle Mountains show that the trees are ready for dispersal.  The overall conditions will be decline today with a greater than 50% chance rain today, but during dryer periods, release, entrainment and dispersal are possible.  Tomorrow, conditions will improve with a declining chance of precipitation, temperatures in the 40s and light winds.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu