The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 17 December 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 17 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies will be cloudy with an overall flow from the south and east moving air northwards.  Winds will be in the 5 to 10 miles per hour range and showers are expected.  There will be a 50% chance of precipitation developing on the Plateau with only a 20% chance to the southwest.  Temperatures across the Edwards Plateau will be in the 50s.  To the north in Dallas and towards Oklahoma highs will be in the 30s and 40s.  The chance of rain will be greater to the north with the border area around Ardmore expecting a 70% chance of rain.  Cloudy skies will remain across the region tonight and throughout tomorrow.  The chance of rain will continue throughout the evening with mild temperatures.  Lows will generally be within 10 degrees of today’s high.  Readings in the mid to upper 40s and low 50s will be the norm overnight.  Tomorrow the clouds will remain, but the chance of rain will diminish with most areas having only a 20% chance.  The communities around the edge of the Edwards Plateau should expect fog and warming during the daytime.  Highs on Thursday will be in the middle 60s with light winds from the south to southeast.  In north Texas and across southern Oklahoma similar conditions will occur but with temperatures only reaching into the upper 40s and low 50s.  Thursday night the chance of rain returns with the region having a 50% to 60% across Texas and a 20% chance across central and southern Oklahoma.  The preceding dominant southerly wind flow will give way to northeasterly winds, bringing slightly cooler air into the region.  Temperatures over the Plateau will be in the 40s with the edge communities remaining in the low 50s.  North Texas and southern Oklahoma will be in the 30s.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas move to the north and northwest, on south to southeasterly winds today, tonight and tomorrow.  Temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s today, tonight with warmer conditions, into the 60s, tomorrow during the day.  Throughout the forecast period there will be rain in the forecast.  Today there is a 50% chance of showers over most of the area, but somewhat of a lesser chance to the southwest of the region.  Over the Edwards Plateau tonight the chance of rain continues to diminish with 20% to 30% chance of rain in most areas.  To the north the chance of rain will be between 50% and 60%.  Tomorrow the chance of rainfall tails off with only a 20% to 30% chance.  Temperatures will be warmer with most areas reaching the 60s.  A more northeasterly flow will begin and nighttime temperatures will fall into the low 50s in the edge communities and into the 40s across the Plateau.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in the Texas populations because the chance of rain will occur during the forecast period.  Yesterday’s pollen levels show that the trees are ripening and areas of heavy pollen were recorded.  The overall conditions will be worse with a greater than 50% chance rain, but in dryer areas release, entrainment and dispersal are possible.  Tomorrow, conditions will remain as rain moves into the forecast for the area tomorrow evening.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu