The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Date Issued: 18 December 2014

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 18 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies will be mostly cloudy with a light flow from across the region.  To the north in Oklahoma winds will be light and variable, whereas in the communities along the edge of the Edwards Plateau a light northeasterly flow will occur.  On the Plateau itself winds will be from the west.  Temperatures across Texas today will be in the mid to upper 60s.  There is a chance of rain and fog this morning in the communities along the southern I-35 corridor.  To the north in Oklahoma highs will be in the 40s with a chance of light rain.  Overnight across the region cloudy conditions will build.  In southern Oklahoma there will be a 20% chance of rain and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Across Texas the chance of rain will be much greater with the eastern Edwards Plateau having a 70% to 90% chance of precipitation.  To the west the chance of rain will diminish.  Winds will be from 5 to 10 miles per hour from the northeast.  Tomorrow morning the rains will continue into the morning with temperatures remaining in the 50s to low 60s across Texas, and winds in the 5-10 mph range from the north.  In southern Oklahoma there will be a 50% chance of rain and high temperatures staying in the 40s.  The northerly flow will continue with winds expected to climb to the 10 mph range.  Tomorrow night the system will begin to clear, however mostly cloudy skies will prevail.  The chance of precipitation ends and lows will drop into the low 40s into the upper 30s.  Winds will continue overnight from the north at 5 to 10 mph.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma move to the south, on light to variable winds from the north.  The air trajectories eventually move into northern Texas where they will be caught up in the overall mix of variable winds.  To the south rains will move in tonight, however southern Oklahoma has only a 20% chance or precipitation tonight.  Tomorrow the chance of showers will increase to 50%.  Tomorrow’s high temperatures will be in the upper 40s and stronger winds from the north to northeast will dominate.  Tomorrow night clearing will begin with partly cloudy skies.  A 20% chance or precipitation will remain and temperatures will drop into the lower 30s.  Winds will return to light and variable conditions.  Throughout the forecast period the trajectories from southern Oklahoma will move towards central Texas.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Low to Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today with a slight chance of rain overnight Tomorrow the Arbuckle population will see a 50% chance of rain.  Yesterday’s regional pollen levels along with discovery of cones shedding pollen in the Arbuckle Mountains show that the trees are ready for dispersal.  The overall conditions will be moderate today but then worsen with a greater than 50% chance rain.  However, during dryer periods today and tomorrow release, entrainment and dispersal are possible.  Tomorrow night conditions begin to improve as the weather system moves out of the region.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu