The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 December 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 18 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies will be mostly cloudy with a light flow from across the region.  To the north in Oklahoma winds will be light and variable, whereas in the communities along the edge of the Edwards Plateau a light northeasterly flow will occur.  On the Plateau itself winds will be from the west.  Temperatures across Texas today will be in the mid to upper 60s.  There is a chance of rain and fog this morning in the communities along the southern I-35 corridor.  To the north in Oklahoma highs will be in the 40s with a chance of light rain.  Overnight across the region cloudy conditions will build.  In southern Oklahoma there will be a 20% chance of rain and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Across Texas the chance of rain will be much greater with the eastern Edwards Plateau having a 70% to 90% chance of precipitation.  To the west the chance of rain will diminish.  Winds will be from 5 to 10 miles per hour from the northeast.  Tomorrow morning the rains will continue into the morning with temperatures remaining in the 50s to low 60s across Texas, and  winds in the 5-10 mph range from the north.  In southern Oklahoma there will be a 50% chance of rain and high temperatures staying in the 40s.  The northerly flow will continue with winds expected to climb to the 10 mph range.  Tomorrow night the system will begin to clear, however mostly cloudy skies will prevail.  The chance of precipitation ends and lows will drop into the low 40s into the upper 30s.  Winds will continue overnight from the north at 5 to 10 mph.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas will remain relatively stable not moving much as winds circle over the area.  Temperatures will be warm with most areas in the mid to upper 60s.  San Antonio may reach 70 today.  Over the evening hours a front will begin to drop southward bringing with it a significant chance of rain.  Temperatures will be mild with conditions in the 40s and 50s overnight. Winds will be from the northeast at 5 to 10 mph.  The rains will continue on Friday with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s.  Winds on Friday will be from the north at 5 to 10 mph on the Edwards Plateau and 10 to 15 in the edge communities along the I-35 corridor.  Overall today will be the best day for pollination but with very light winds, then wet weather moves in this afternoon and evening and will last tonight and tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today, degrading to poor conditions tomorrow in the Texas populations because a significant chance of rain will move into the area during the later forecast period.  Yesterday’s pollen levels show that the trees are already pollinating and areas of heavy pollen concentrations were recorded.  The overall conditions will see potentially heavy pollination in areas today with warm conditions but light winds.  The  Eastern and southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau running north towards Waco seems to be the center of recent pollen dispersal.  However, ripening cones as far north as the Arbuckle Mountains of Southern Oklahoma have been observed.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu