The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 December 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Friday, December 19 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies will be cloudy with a moderate flow from the north to northeast across the region.  To the north in Oklahoma winds will be light and variable..  On the Plateau itself winds will be from the north to northeast.  Temperatures across Texas today will grade from the mid-40s to the north, 50s across the Edwards Plateau and into the 60s at the southern edge communities.  There will be a chance of showers across the entire region.  In Oklahoma there will be a 20% to 30% chance of rain with drizzle and foggy conditions.  In north Texas the chance of rain increases to 60% in the Dallas/Ft Worth area.  Southward along the I-35 corridor the chance of rain will climb to 70%.  The Edwards Plateau will have a 40% chance to the west, rising towards the east.  By this evening the chance of showers will have moved off to the east with skies becoming partly cloudy in most areas.  Winds will remain light overnight and from the north to northeast.  Saturday, skies will become partly cloudy with clearing to the far west.  Temperatures will be in the 50s region wide and winds will be light from the southeast in most areas.  Northeasterly winds will remain in the edge communities along the I-35 corridor.  Saturday night partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur and temperatures will drop into the 30s over the Plateau and in southern Oklahoma, and be in the mid to low 40s in the edge communities from Waco to Austin and west to San Antonio. 
 
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will remain relatively stable not moving much, but overall heading southward over northern Texas.  Temperatures will be cool with most areas in the 40s.  This morning will see ground fog with a 20% to 30% chance of showers developing in conjunction with the rain over the Edwards Plateau.  Last night a front dropped southward across the region bringing with the significant chance of rain further south.  Winds will be light and variable over the entire forecast period.  Saturday afternoon and evening conditions will improve as Friday’s system moves towards the east.  There will be a chance of pollen being dispersed both days, with the greater chance of precipitation today it will be less likely than tomorrow. The past few days have shown that the trees have ripe cones and pollen is being entrained into the atmosphere.  Overall today will have a potential for pollen in the atmosphere but it will clear as rain develops.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today with a slight chance of rain today. Tomorrow the Arbuckle population will see improving conditions and a slight warmup. High temperatures will be in the mid-40s today and low 50s tomorrow.  The cones on trees growing in the Arbuckle mountain area are shedding pollen and are ready for dispersal.  The overall conditions will be moderate today depending upon whether or not it rains.  If pollen is shed the overall light winds will move entrained pollen grains to the south over the Texas border towards the Dallas/Ft Worth region. Tomorrow conditions will improve as the weather system moves out of the region.

 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu