The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather:  Saturday and Sunday, December 20 and 21 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies will begin partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with morning fog.  Temperatures will return to the 50’s region wide.  Across the Edwards Plateau, winds will be from the south and southeast, but shifting to the northeast in the surrounding communities.  Winds will be light regionally.  Into the evening temperatures will fall into the 40’s, upper 30’ to the north in southern Oklahoma, with light winds continuing from the south. Skies will build from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy overnight.  Temperatures will be seasonally mild with reading across the region in the 40’s.  Tomorrow mostly cloudy skies will begin to break-up with the I-35 corridor becoming mostly sunny.  Temperatures will climb into the upper 50’s with San Antonio expected to reach into the low 60’s.  Winds will be from the southwest over the Edwards Plateau and from the south across the remainder of the region. In areas, such as the western side of the Plateau winds will build up to 10 to 15 miles per hour.  Tomorrow night, cloudy skies will continue to dissipate, with the Edwards Plateau becoming mostly clear.  The edge communities to the north will remain partly cloudy.  Temperatures will be in the low 40s wand a dominant southerly flow will occur across the region for the entirety of the forecast area.   

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas will evolve with conditions stabilizing after the moister conditions earlier in the week.  Skies will be cloudy but clearing towards tomorrow, and temperatures will be mild with highs expected in the mid to upper 50’s today and a few degrees warmer tomorrow.  Air mass trajectories will initially move to the south then east with an overall clockwise movement to the west and then northward across west Texas.  The weekend is expected to be very mild across the entire forecast area and very good for the release and entrainment of pollen.  Temperatures will be moderate with areas in the 50s, however San Antonio may reach 60 today and tomorrow much of the western Edwards Plateau will achieve similar warmth.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat Today and High Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today, with warm temperatures and light winds.  Yesterday’s pollen levels were building from the showers on Thursday.  Yesterday had improving conditions that will be good for pollen dispersal, entrainment and travel.   The trees are already pollinating and areas of heavy pollen concentrations have been recorded, especially along the I-35 corridor from San Antonio north to Waco.  Tomorrow conditions will continue to improve with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s and with clearing skies.  As the trees dry out pollen conditions for release will improve, especially in the warmer southern areas.  For that reason we are expecting a high threat of pollen in the atmosphere today and tomorrow.  

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu