The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 1 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, February 1 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be a significant push of cold air from the north for the rest of the week, with temperatures beginning to drop Monday night and conditions becoming dangerous in many communities. In both Oklahoma and Texas today cloudy skies occur with significant chances of snow to the north and rain in central and southern regions of central Texas. The edge communities will be the warmest with temperatures just getting into the lowest 50’s in the southern most communities. To the west the high temperatures will be in the 20’s and 30’s whereas along the eastern edge communities temperatures will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s for the high temperatures. Winds will be strong throughout the area from the north with the eastern edge communities experiencing gusts in the high 30 mile an hour range. Precipitation will be falling with snow to the far north, freezing rain and sleet across north central region (often turning from rain to freezing rain and sleet) to rain along the southern areas. Tonight partly to mostly cloudy skies will remain and the very cold temperatures will take over. Low temperatures will be in the single digits in central Oklahoma, and the teen south and westward across the region. The eastern edge communities will be in the low twenties. Winds will remain from the north at strong levels. In all areas the combination of strong winds and frigid conditions will lead to wind chill values that could be life threatening if prolonged exposure occurs. Tomorrow some clearing will occur along the eastern edge communities, but the remainder of the region will remain partly to mostly cloudy. High temperatures will be in the low 20’s to mid 30’s getting warmer towards the south and east. Winds will begin to slacken especially to the west. Gustiness is expected along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night low temperatures will be even colder with low teens expected across the entire region and areas in Oklahoma in the single digits. Winds will continue from the north at moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move south towards southern Texas and the Gulf Coast today, tonight and tomorrow. The air is extremely cold and dense moving along the ground. High winds drive the atmosphere southward at a quickened pace. The air is dense during the first approximately third of the travel then begins to interact with more buoyant conditions. Temperatures across the region will be frigid to the point that no pollen is expected to be in the air for the next few days. Temperatures get colder tomorrow and tomorrow night, with conditions becoming life threatening with the wind chills factored in. Be careful.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions today and especially tomorrow will be poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shedding pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. In addition, today a significant weather system from the north moves across the region bringing the chance of freezing rain and snow. Winds will increase becoming moderate to strong today and tonight. The cold temperatures will last for the next few days with highs at or below freezing and nighttime temperatures in the teens and single digits in most places.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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