The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 February 2011

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, February 2 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will be under a significant push of cold air from the north for the rest of the week, with temperatures dropping overnight and conditions becoming dangerous in many communities. In both Oklahoma and Texas today cloudy skies will occur except along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau where partly sunny skies will be present. The edge communities will be the warmest with temperatures just getting into the mid to upper 30s. The rest of the region will remain in the 20s today across Texas and only in the mid-teens in southern Oklahoma. Winds will remain from the northwest at moderate levels. Areas in north Texas and along the western edge communities will see strong gusts at times in the 20 to 30 miles per hour. There is a lack of precipitation today, tonight and tomorrow, but tomorrow night a chance of snow exists for Dallas, and the eastern edge communities. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will remain and the very cold temperatures will take over. Low temperatures will be in the single digits in central Oklahoma, and the teens southward and westward across the region. The large urban areas around the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau will reach the lower 20’s. Very dangerous conditions exist for people forced outside. Winds will remain from the north at strong levels with gusty conditions remaining in the forecast. In all areas the combination of strong winds and frigid conditions will lead to wind chill values that will be life threatening if prolonged exposure occurs. Tomorrow some clearing will occur towards the north whereas the rest of the region will remain mostly cloudy. High temperatures will stay in the teens to the north and be in the 20’s to 30’s across Texas. Winds will begin to slacken with a reduction in winds gusts but maintaining a moderate wind level. Tomorrow night low temperatures will be even colder with teens to low twenties in most places. Winds will continue from the north at moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move south towards southern Texas and Mexico today, tonight and tomorrow. The air is cold and dense moving along the ground. Moderate to high winds drive the atmosphere southward at a quickened pace. The air is dense during the first portion of the travel then begins to interact with more buoyant conditions. Temperatures across the region will be frigid to the point that no pollen is expected to be in the air for the next few days. Temperatures stay colder tomorrow and tomorrow night, with conditions becoming life threatening with the wind chills factored in. Be careful.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions today and especially tomorrow will be poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shedding pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. In addition, today a significant weather system from the north moves across the region bringing the chance of freezing rain and snow. Winds will increase becoming moderate to strong today and tonight. The cold temperatures will last for the next few days with highs at or below freezing and nighttime temperatures in the teens and single digits in most places.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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