The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued:3 February 2011


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Thursday, February 3 – TX/OK: Conditions across the region will continue today under the significant push of cold air from the north, with temperatures dropping again overnight resulting in conditions becoming dangerous in many communities. In both Oklahoma and Texas cloudy skies will occur with relatively dry conditions but temperatures only in the 20’s, except for the southernmost locations around San Antonio where temperatures are expected to move into the low 30’s. Winds will remain from the north at moderate levels today except in Oklahoma where they will be light and variable. Overnight temperatures will be in the teens except for the edge communities which will drop to the lower twenties. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy with a chance of snow across Texas. The chance increases towards the east with western areas at 20% and the edge communities of San Antonio and Austin around 50% with projected accumulation. In Oklahoma temperatures will be back in the single digits. Tomorrow some warming will begin with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies beginning the day along with a 30% chance of snow in San Antonio and Dallas. The chance of snow in Austin will be 50%. Winds will be from the northwest at light to moderate levels from the southwest in Oklahoma, from the west in western Texas and northwest from Dallas around the Edwards Plateau edge communities. Temperatures on Friday will continue to climb reaching the upper 30’s across Texas and lower 30’s in Oklahoma. Friday night partly cloudy skies will occur except across west Texas where skies will clear. Low temperatures will be in the mid 20’s. Winds will be light to moderate from the west across the area.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south towards southern Texas and the Gulf Coast today, tonight and tomorrow. The air is extremely cold and dense moving along the ground. Light to moderate winds drive the atmosphere southward during the forecast period. There is some buoyancy to the atmosphere but with cold temperatures region wide, no pollen is expected to be shed today or tomorrow. Temperatures across the region will be frigid throughout the forecast period. Temperatures stay cold tomorrow and tomorrow night, with conditions becoming life threatening with the wind chills factored in. Warmer conditions appear to be building towards the weekend

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with cold temperatures in the area. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. Cold conditions today and especially tomorrow will be poor for pollen cones to open and shed their pollen. In addition poor conditions will occur for shedding pollen to become entrained into the atmosphere with cold dense air across the region. In addition, a weather system moves across the region tonight bringing the chance of snow again for the Texas region. Winds will increase becoming to moderate levels today and tonight. The cold temperatures will last for the next few days with some warming expected by the weekend.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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